RB Bragantino v 
Santos
Match statistics
| RB Bragantino | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 319 | Passes | 522 |
| 38% | Possession % | 62% |
| 0.99 | xG | 1.21 |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 64%
- Model pick
- RB Bragantino 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.69 – 1.48
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Santos 0
Why this price?
Back Santos 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.85 with Bet365 — Santos to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 35%; we judge it at 39%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.59. The offered 2.85 implies only 35%, so the price is 10.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.38 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: RB Bragantino 1.69, Santos 1.48.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | -2.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 38.5% | 2.59 | 2.60 Betano | 38.5% | +0.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 39.2% | 2.55 | 2.75 Bet365 | 36.4% | +2.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | 1.53 William Hill | 65.4% | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 36.4% | 2.74 | 2.63 Betfair | 38.0% | -1.6 |
| Match result | RB Bragantino | 42.3% | 2.36 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | -5.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.4% | 4.09 | 4.05 Betano | 24.7% | -0.2 |
| Match result | Santos | 33.2% | 3.01 | 3.60 Bet365 | 27.8% | +5.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | 1.22 Bet365 | 82.0% | +1.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 16.9% | 5.90 | 5.50 Bet365 | 18.2% | -1.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
RB Bragantino favoured against Santos
Our model makes RB Bragantino 42% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 24% and Santos at 33%. The goal projection is 1.69 for RB Bragantino against 1.48 for Santos — a slight edge to RB Bragantino on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| RB Bragantino | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 34 |
| 13-8-13 | W-D-L | 12-11-11 |
| 1.38 | Pts / game | 1.38 |
| 1.29 | Goals for / game | 1.47 |
| 1.15 | Goals against / game | 1.44 |
| 41% | Over 2.5 | 65% |
| 53% | BTTS | 74% |
| 26% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 24% | Failed to score | 12% |
| 9-3-5 | Home record | 6-7-4 |
| 4-5-8 | Away record | 6-4-7 |
| W2 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. RB Bragantino · Santos
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 19.5 | Shots | 15.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.8 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 7.4 | Corners | 4.9 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 3.45 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 11.7 |
| 48 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.85 | xG | 1.77 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 15.9 | Shots | 15.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 6.1 | Corners | 7.6 |
| 1.77 | Cards | 2.60 |
| 8.8 | Fouls | 15.9 |
| 52 | Possession % | 49 |
| 2.04 | xG | 1.44 |
| 8 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| RB Bragantino | Metric | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 1.92 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.77 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.80 (better) | Shots on target | 5.40 |
| 20.60 (better) | Total shots | 15.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Corners | 5.60 |
| 50.4 (better) | Possession % | 47.6 |
| 435 | Passes | 436 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 (better) | Fouls | 13.80 |
| 0.80 (better) | Offsides | 2.33 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.40 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- RB Bragantino wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Santos wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- RB Bragantino v Santos2–12026-11-02
- Santos v RB Bragantino2–02026-05-10
- RB Bragantino v Santos2–22025-09-28
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 | Flamengo won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 | Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 60 | Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +13 | 57 | Fluminense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 | Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 | Bahia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 | Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 | RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 | Santos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 | Botafogo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 | Coritiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 | Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -16 | 38 | Vitoria won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 | Corinthians won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 | Gremio won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 | Remo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -35 | 21 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |