Rapid won 3 of the last 5DWLWW3rd2–0Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5WWLLW7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Rapid
Corvinul Hunedoara
9
Shots
14
4
Shots on target
2
0
Corners
4
8
Fouls
17
2
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
391
Passes
435
46%
Possession %
54%
1.36
xG
0.83
49%
28%
23%
1 · RapidXCorvinul Hunedoara · 2
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
22%
Both score
48%
Model pick
Rapid 49%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.48 – 0.94
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Rapid
49.0%
2.04
1.59 Dafabet
62.9%
-13.9
Match result
Draw
27.6%
3.63
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
+3.2
Match result
Corvinul Hunedoara
23.4%
4.28
6.80 Dafabet
14.7%
+8.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
70.1%
1.43
1.29 Betano
77.5%
-7.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
29.9%
3.34
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
+5.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
43.4%
2.31
1.87 Betano
53.5%
-10.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
56.6%
1.77
2.00 Bet365
50.0%
+6.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
22.4%
4.46
3.10 Betano
32.3%
-9.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
77.6%
1.29
1.40 Betano
71.4%
+6.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
47.6%
2.10
2.02 Betano
49.5%
-1.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
52.4%
1.91
1.91 William Hill
52.4%
+0.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rapid favoured against Corvinul Hunedoara
Our model makes Rapid 49% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 28% and Corvinul Hunedoara at 23%. The goal projection is 1.48 for Rapid against 0.94 for Corvinul Hunedoara — a substantial edge to Rapid on expected output. A combined 2.41 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rapid
Metric
Corvinul Hunedoara
2.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
2.45 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.91
—
Big chances *
—
7.67 (better)
Shots on target
6.25
22.00 (better)
Total shots
16.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.67 (better)
Corners
6.75
56.0 (better)
Possession %
49.8
454 (better)
Passes
368
—
Tackles
—
11.00 (better)
Fouls
17.25
3.00
Offsides
2.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
3.75
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Rapid v 
Corvinul Hunedoara