Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5WWWWW1st5–1Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5WLLLL8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Rapid Vienna
Austria Lustenau
19
Shots
8
7
Shots on target
4
10
Corners
2
7
Fouls
16
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
0
602
Passes
375
62%
Possession %
38%
4.33
xG
1.07
71%
16%
13%
1 · Rapid ViennaXAustria Lustenau · 2
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
54%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Rapid Vienna 71%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.13
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Rapid Vienna
71.1%
1.41
1.30 William Hill
76.9%
-5.8
Match result
Draw
16.2%
6.18
7.80 Dafabet
12.8%
+3.4
Match result
Austria Lustenau
12.7%
7.85
13.00 BetVictor
7.7%
+5.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
90.3%
1.11
1.09 Betano
91.7%
-1.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
9.7%
10.26
8.00 Bet365
12.5%
-2.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
74.4%
1.34
1.31 Betano
76.3%
-1.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
25.6%
3.91
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-2.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
54.3%
1.84
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-1.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
45.7%
2.19
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-1.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.7%
1.57
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+6.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.3%
2.75
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
-10.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Rapid Vienna favoured against Austria Lustenau
Our model makes Rapid Vienna 71% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 16% and Austria Lustenau at 13%. The goal projection is 2.75 for Rapid Vienna against 1.13 for Austria Lustenau — a commanding edge to Rapid Vienna on expected output. A combined 3.88 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Rapid Vienna is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 29% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-1 9%
3-1 8%
2-0 8%
3-0 7%
1-1 7%
This season
Season records for Rapid Vienna and Austria Lustenau
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rapid Vienna
Metric
Austria Lustenau
3.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.80
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
2.03 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.23
—
Big chances *
—
5.25 (better)
Shots on target
4.33
11.25
Total shots
13.33 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00 (better)
Corners
3.67
58.5 (better)
Possession %
43.0
606 (better)
Passes
343
—
Tackles
—
10.00 (better)
Fouls
10.67
3.00
Offsides
1.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Rapid Vienna v 
Austria Lustenau