Randers FC v Brondby

11th1–35th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Randers FC		Brondby
11	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	8
6	Corners	6
5	Fouls	14
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
444	Passes	478
49%	Possession %	51%
2.11	xG	3.56

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Brondby 45%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.50

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Brondby +0.25

1.64BetVictor · fair 1.50 · qualifies at 1.55+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Brondby +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.64 with BetVictor — Brondby starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 68% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 66%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.50. The offered 1.64 implies only 61%, so the price is 9.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Randers FC 1.12, Brondby 1.50.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Randers FC	27.6%	3.62	3.70 Bet365	27.0%	+0.6
Match result	Draw	26.9%	3.71	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	+1.3
Match result	Brondby	45.5%	2.20	2.02 Dafabet	49.5%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.3%	1.35	1.18 BetVictor	84.7%	-10.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.7%	3.88	5.25 BetVictor	19.0%	+6.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.7%	2.06	1.64 BetVictor	61.0%	-12.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.3%	1.95	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+12.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.8%	3.73	2.63 BetVictor	38.0%	-11.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.2%	1.37	1.62 Betano	61.7%	+11.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.9%	1.89	1.55 BetVictor	64.5%	-11.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.1%	2.12	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	+7.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brondby favoured against Randers FC

Our model makes Randers FC 28% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Brondby at 45%. The goal projection is 1.12 for Randers FC against 1.50 for Brondby — a clear edge to Brondby on expected output. A combined 2.62 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Randers FC and Brondby
Randers FC		Brondby
14	Played	14
3-2-9	W-D-L	7-1-6
0.79	Pts / game	1.57
1.00	Goals for / game	1.64
1.93	Goals against / game	1.50
57%	Over 2.5	57%
50%	BTTS	57%
21%	Clean sheets	21%
36%	Failed to score	21%
2-1-5	Home record	5-0-2
1-1-4	Away record	2-1-4
L3	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Randers FC · Brondby

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	11.3
4.0	Shots on target	4.2
4.2	Corners	5.8
1.70	Cards	1.67
8.8	Fouls	13.8
47	Possession %	49
1.52	xG	1.99
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.8	Shots	14.2
6.3	Shots on target	3.8
4.3	Corners	4.7
1.17	Cards	1.50
13.0	Fouls	11.3
53	Possession %	51
2.29	xG	1.34
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Randers FC	Metric	Brondby
1.20	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.42 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.30
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.33 (better)
13.67 (better)	Total shots	12.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.67	Corners	3.67
52.7 (better)	Possession %	48.0
502 (better)	Passes	425
	Tackles
10.33 (better)	Fouls	10.67
0.50 (better)	Offsides	3.67
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
0.33	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Randers FC wins: 1
Draws: 1
Brondby wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.25
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 25%

Randers FC v Brondby1–32026-10-23
Brondby v Randers FC0–32026-09-06
Brondby v Randers FC0–02026-02-08
Randers FC v Brondby0–22025-08-17

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5