Raków Częstochowa v 
Pogon Szczecin
Match statistics
| Raków Częstochowa | Pogon Szczecin | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 459 | Passes | 489 |
| 61% | Possession % | 39% |
| 2.76 | xG | 0.63 |
- Over 1.5
- 75%
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Over 3.5
- 28%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Pogon Szczecin 36%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.33 – 1.33
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.45 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 43%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.31. The offered 2.45 implies only 41%, so the price is 6.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.04 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.33, Pogon Szczecin 1.33.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Raków Częstochowa -0.5
Why this price?
Back Raków Częstochowa -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.12 with Betano — Raków Częstochowa must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 57%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.05. The offered 2.12 implies only 47%, so the price is 3.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.76 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.33, Pogon Szczecin 1.33.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.2% | 2.21 | 2.55 BetVictor | 39.2% | +6.0 |
| Match result | Raków Częstochowa | 36.4% | 2.75 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | -7.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.3% | 3.67 | 3.75 Betfair | 26.7% | +0.6 |
| Match result | Pogon Szczecin | 36.4% | 2.75 | 3.15 Dafabet | 31.7% | +4.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | 1.22 Bet365 | 82.0% | -6.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 24.9% | 4.01 | 4.50 Bet365 | 22.2% | +2.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | -9.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | +9.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 27.8% | 3.60 | 2.75 Betfair | 36.4% | -8.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | 1.47 Betano | 68.0% | +4.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.8% | 1.82 | 1.57 William Hill | 63.7% | -8.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Raków Częstochowa v Pogon Szczecin: too close to call
Our model makes Raków Częstochowa 36% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 27% and Pogon Szczecin at 36%. The goal projection is 1.33 for Raków Częstochowa against 1.33 for Pogon Szczecin — almost nothing to Pogon Szczecin on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Raków Częstochowa | Pogon Szczecin | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 13 |
| 4-0-10 | W-D-L | 7-3-3 |
| 0.86 | Pts / game | 1.85 |
| 1.64 | Goals for / game | 1.54 |
| 2.21 | Goals against / game | 1.15 |
| 93% | Over 2.5 | 46% |
| 93% | BTTS | 46% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 7% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 2-0-5 | Home record | 4-2-1 |
| 2-0-5 | Away record | 3-1-2 |
| W2 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Raków Częstochowa · Pogon Szczecin
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.4 | Shots | 10.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 1.80 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 15.2 |
| 51 | Possession % | 46 |
| 2.29 | xG | 1.11 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.4 | Shots | 17.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 0.80 |
| 12.2 | Fouls | 9.2 |
| 49 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.36 | xG | 1.70 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Raków Częstochowa | Metric | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 2.40 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| 1.96 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.50 (better) | Shots on target | 4.50 |
| 20.25 (better) | Total shots | 12.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 3.00 |
| 59.0 (better) | Possession % | 39.3 |
| 512 (better) | Passes | 348 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.50 (better) | Fouls | 15.50 |
| 1.50 (better) | Offsides | 2.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.75 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.25 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Raków Częstochowa wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Pogon Szczecin wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Raków Częstochowa v Pogon Szczecin3–12026-11-02
- Raków Częstochowa v Pogon Szczecin2–02026-03-08
- Pogon Szczecin v Raków Częstochowa2–02025-08-31
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | +21 | 32 | Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 31 | Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | +10 | 24 | Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 | Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 23 | Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | +5 | 21 | GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 | Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 18 | Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 | Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 | Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 | Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 12 | Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -8 | 12 | Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 10 | Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -10 | 8 | Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5 |