Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw

14th3–117th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Radomiak Radom		Slask Wroclaw
22	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	4
9	Corners	7
11	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
491	Passes	350
58%	Possession %	42%
2.37	xG	2.28

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Radomiak Radom 40%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.69 – 1.61

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Radomiak Radom -0.5

2.15Betano · fair 1.93 · qualifies at 1.99+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Radomiak Radom -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Betano — Radomiak Radom must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 60%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.93. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.69, Slask Wroclaw 1.61.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	24.0%	4.16	3.70 BetVictor	27.0%	-3.0
Match result	Slask Wroclaw	36.3%	2.75	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+7.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.6%	1.18	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.4%	6.49	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-6.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.0%	1.56	1.65 Bet365	60.6%	+3.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.0%	2.78	2.37 Betano	42.2%	-6.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.9%	2.39	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+3.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.1%	1.72	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-5.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.7%	1.52	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.3%	2.91	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	-4.9
Match result	Radomiak Radom	39.6%	2.52	2.20 William Hill	45.5%	-5.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw: too close to call

Our model makes Radomiak Radom 40% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 24% and Slask Wroclaw at 36%. The goal projection is 1.69 for Radomiak Radom against 1.61 for Slask Wroclaw — almost nothing to Radomiak Radom on expected output. A combined 3.30 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Radomiak Radom and Slask Wroclaw
Radomiak Radom		Slask Wroclaw
14	Played	14
4-2-8	W-D-L	2-4-8
1.00	Pts / game	0.71
1.21	Goals for / game	1.21
2.07	Goals against / game	1.79
64%	Over 2.5	71%
57%	BTTS	79%
21%	Clean sheets	21%
36%	Failed to score	14%
3-1-3	Home record	2-3-2
1-1-5	Away record	0-1-6
W2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Radomiak Radom · Slask Wroclaw

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	10.0
4.0	Shots on target	3.4
5.7	Corners	3.8
2.07	Cards	2.60
11.2	Fouls	13.0
48	Possession %	41
1.42	xG	1.72
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.5	Shots	19.8
6.8	Shots on target	6.0
7.7	Corners	7.2
2.67	Cards	2.60
13.7	Fouls	10.2
52	Possession %	59
2.19	xG	2.27
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Radomiak Radom	Metric	Slask Wroclaw
2.50 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.75 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
1.02 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.92
	Big chances
2.67	Shots on target	3.50 (better)
11.33 (better)	Total shots	7.25
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	3.25
45.7 (better)	Possession %	44.3
395 (better)	Passes	375
	Tackles
11.33 (better)	Fouls	15.00
0.33 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
1.67 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Radomiak Radom wins: 1
Draws: 0
Slask Wroclaw wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Radomiak Radom v Slask Wroclaw3–12026-11-02

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5