Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5WLWLD10th2–2Valencia won 1 of the last 5LWLDD19th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Racing Santander
Valencia
20
Shots
10
11
Shots on target
2
8
Corners
3
15
Fouls
10
3
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
523
Passes
451
54%
Possession %
46%
1.35
xG
1.71
49%
22%
29%
1 · Racing SantanderXValencia · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
50%
Both score
70%
Model pick
Racing Santander 49%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.59
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Racing Santander
48.7%
2.05
2.40 Bet365
41.7%
+7.1
Match result
Draw
22.0%
4.55
3.70 BetVictor
27.0%
-5.0
Match result
Valencia
29.3%
3.42
3.20 Bet365
31.3%
-2.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.4%
1.13
1.23 BetVictor
81.3%
+7.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
70.0%
1.43
1.62 William Hill
61.7%
+8.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.6%
8.65
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-10.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
70.8%
1.41
1.70 Betano
58.8%
+12.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
29.2%
3.42
2.25 Betano
44.4%
-15.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
49.8%
2.01
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
+12.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
50.2%
1.99
1.52 Betano
65.8%
-15.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
30.0%
3.33
2.50 Betfair
40.0%
-10.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Racing Santander favoured against Valencia
Our model makes Racing Santander 49% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Valencia at 29%. The goal projection is 2.08 for Racing Santander against 1.59 for Valencia — a clear edge to Racing Santander on expected output. A combined 3.66 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Racing Santander
Metric
Valencia
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
3.60
Goals conceded
2.40 (better)
1.39 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.87
—
Big chances *
—
4.40 (better)
Shots on target
2.80
9.80
Total shots
10.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.60
Corners
4.40 (better)
47.6
Possession %
49.4 (better)
428
Passes
432 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.80
Fouls
9.40 (better)
2.00 (better)
Offsides
2.40
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.60
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Racing Santander v 
Valencia