Qingdao Youth Island won 0 of the last 5LDLLD10th1–1Yunnan Yukun won 2 of the last 5WDDLW7th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Qingdao Youth Island
Yunnan Yukun
15
Shots
13
8
Shots on target
4
6
Corners
3
17
Fouls
15
2
Yellow cards
0
—
Red cards
—
6
Offsides
0
250
Passes
416
38%
Possession %
62%
—
xG
—
43%
23%
34%
1 · Qingdao Youth IslandXYunnan Yukun · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
68%
Model pick
Qingdao Youth Island 43%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.61
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Qingdao Youth Island
42.9%
2.33
2.49 Dafabet
40.2%
+2.8
Match result
Draw
23.3%
4.29
3.90 Bet365
25.6%
-2.3
Match result
Yunnan Yukun
33.8%
2.96
2.70 Dafabet
37.0%
-3.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.2%
1.16
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
+0.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.5%
3.08
2.75 Betfair
36.4%
-3.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.8%
7.23
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-4.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.7%
1.50
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
+3.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.3%
3.00
2.60 Bet365
38.5%
-5.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.9%
2.23
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
+2.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.1%
1.81
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-4.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.5%
1.48
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
+0.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Qingdao Youth Island favoured against Yunnan Yukun
Our model makes Qingdao Youth Island 43% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Yunnan Yukun at 34%. The goal projection is 1.83 for Qingdao Youth Island against 1.61 for Yunnan Yukun — a slight edge to Qingdao Youth Island on expected output. A combined 3.43 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 5%
This season
Season records for Qingdao Youth Island and Yunnan Yukun
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Qingdao Youth Island
Metric
Yunnan Yukun
1.00
Goals scored
2.00 (better)
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
3.20
1.13
Expected goals (xG)
1.48 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.20
Shots on target
5.50 (better)
13.80 (better)
Total shots
12.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.80
Corners
4.00 (better)
48.4 (better)
Possession %
45.8
392 (better)
Passes
375
—
Tackles
—
11.20
Fouls
10.25 (better)
1.75
Offsides
0.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80
Yellow cards
1.25 (better)
1.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Qingdao Youth Island v 
Yunnan Yukun