Qingdao Jonoon v 
Shenyang Urban
Match statistics
| Qingdao Jonoon | Shenyang Urban | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 373 | Passes | 407 |
| 48% | Possession % | 52% |
| 0.43 | xG | 2.53 |
- Over 1.5
- 85%
- Over 2.5
- 65%
- Over 3.5
- 43%
- Both score
- 66%
- Model pick
- Qingdao Jonoon 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.72 – 1.61
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Qingdao Jonoon
Why this price?
Back Qingdao Jonoon to win at 3.30 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.97. The offered 3.30 implies only 30%, so the price is 11.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.23 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Qingdao Jonoon 1.72, Shenyang Urban 1.61.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Qingdao Jonoon | 40.5% | 2.47 | 10.00 William Hill | 10.0% | +30.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.8% | 4.19 | 6.00 William Hill | 16.7% | +7.2 |
| Match result | Shenyang Urban | 35.7% | 2.80 | 1.59 Dafabet | 62.9% | -27.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 85.0% | 1.18 | 1.16 Betano | 86.2% | -1.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 15.0% | 6.68 | 7.00 BetVictor | 14.3% | +0.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.54 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | +2.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 3.10 Bet365 | 32.3% | +3.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 42.7% | 2.34 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | +1.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 57.3% | 1.75 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | +9.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | -9.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban: too close to call
Our model makes Qingdao Jonoon 40% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Shenyang Urban at 36%. The goal projection is 1.72 for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.61 for Shenyang Urban — a slight edge to Qingdao Jonoon on expected output. A combined 3.33 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 6%
This season
| Qingdao Jonoon | Shenyang Urban | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Played | 30 |
| 6-4-20 | W-D-L | 8-5-17 |
| 0.73 | Pts / game | 0.97 |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 1.40 |
| 2.13 | Goals against / game | 1.93 |
| 63% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 63% | BTTS | 57% |
| 7% | Clean sheets | 10% |
| 33% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 5-3-7 | Home record | 6-2-7 |
| 1-1-13 | Away record | 2-3-10 |
| D1 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Qingdao Jonoon · Shenyang Urban
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.8 | Shots | 17.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 2.75 | Cards | 2.25 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 42 | Possession % | 47 |
| 0.43 | xG | 2.53 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 17.5 | Shots | 11.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.75 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 58 | Possession % | 53 |
| 2.53 | xG | 0.43 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Qingdao Jonoon | Metric | Shenyang Urban |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 3.00 | Goals conceded | 2.80 (better) |
| 1.61 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.80 (better) | Shots on target | 2.60 |
| 14.60 (better) | Total shots | 12.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.80 | Corners | 5.80 (better) |
| 41.6 | Possession % | 58.2 (better) |
| 329 | Passes | 444 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.80 | Fouls | 12.60 (better) |
| 1.80 (better) | Offsides | 3.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 1.50 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Qingdao Jonoon wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Shenyang Urban wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 50%
- Qingdao Jonoon v Shenyang Urban0–42026-10-17
- Shenyang Urban v Qingdao Jonoon2–12026-05-20
Chinese Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | +22 | 55 | Beijing Guoan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Shandong Luneng | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | +11 | 53 | Shandong Luneng won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Chengdu Better City | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | +15 | 52 | Chengdu Better City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Dalian Zhixing | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | +5 | 52 | Dalian Zhixing won 5 of the last 5 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | +19 | 50 | SHANGHAI SIPG won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Shanghai Shenhua | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | +17 | 50 | Shanghai Shenhua won 4 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Yunnan Yukun | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -2 | 43 | Yunnan Yukun won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Hangzhou Greentown | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | +1 | 42 | Hangzhou Greentown won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Tianjin Teda | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | +2 | 41 | Tianjin Teda won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Qingdao Youth Island | 30 | 8 | 15 | 7 | -10 | 39 | Qingdao Youth Island won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | -4 | 36 | Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 | Henan Jianye won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | -12 | 33 | Sichuan Jiuniu won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | -16 | 29 | Shenyang Urban won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -12 | 27 | Wuhan Three Towns won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -28 | 22 | Qingdao Jonoon won 0 of the last 5 |