Pyramids FC won 4 of the last 4WWWW4–0EL Merriekh Bentiu won 2 of the last 4LLWW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Pyramids FC
EL Merriekh Bentiu
18
Shots
12
8
Shots on target
4
5
Corners
3
—
Fouls
—
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
66%
Possession %
34%
—
xG
—
58%
25%
17%
1 · Pyramids FCXEL Merriekh Bentiu · 2
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
45%
Model pick
Pyramids FC 58%
Likely score
1-0 14%
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.78
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
44.8%
2.23
—
—
—
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
55.2%
1.81
—
—
—
Match result
Pyramids FC
58.3%
1.71
1.03 Bet365
97.1%
-38.8
Match result
Draw
25.0%
3.99
17.00 Bet365
5.9%
+19.2
Match result
EL Merriekh Bentiu
16.6%
6.01
51.00 Bet365
2.0%
+14.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.2%
1.40
—
—
—
Total goals
Under 1.5
28.8%
3.47
—
—
—
Total goals
Over 2.5
44.8%
2.23
1.28 Bet365
78.1%
-33.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
55.2%
1.81
3.60 Bet365
27.8%
+27.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
23.6%
4.24
—
—
—
Total goals
Under 3.5
76.4%
1.31
—
—
—
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Pyramids FC favoured against EL Merriekh Bentiu
Our model makes Pyramids FC 58% to win this CAF Champions League fixture, with the draw at 25% and EL Merriekh Bentiu at 17%. The goal projection is 1.69 for Pyramids FC against 0.78 for EL Merriekh Bentiu — a commanding edge to Pyramids FC on expected output. A combined 2.47 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-0 14%
2-0 12%
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
0-0 9%
This season
Season records for Pyramids FC and EL Merriekh Bentiu
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Pyramids FC
Metric
EL Merriekh Bentiu
3.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
1.00
Goals conceded
1.00
1.96
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
5.50
Shots on target
—
17.00
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00
Corners
—
51.5
Possession %
—
356
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
13.00
Fouls
—
1.50
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
4.00
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Pyramids FC v 
EL Merriekh Bentiu