Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5WLLWW1st1–2Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5DLWLL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Puskas Academy
Nyiregyhaza
9
Shots
10
4
Shots on target
5
5
Corners
6
11
Fouls
11
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
414
Passes
469
44%
Possession %
56%
0.83
xG
1.27
53%
24%
23%
1 · Puskas AcademyXNyiregyhaza · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Puskas Academy 53%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.14
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Puskas Academy
52.6%
1.90
2.05 William Hill
48.8%
+3.8
Match result
Draw
24.1%
4.15
3.70 Dafabet
27.0%
-2.9
Match result
Nyiregyhaza
23.3%
4.29
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
-5.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.9%
1.25
1.21 Betano
82.6%
-2.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.1%
4.99
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-2.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.7%
1.76
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-3.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.3%
2.31
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-2.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.3%
2.92
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-3.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.7%
1.52
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-0.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
57.5%
1.74
1.57 William Hill
63.7%
-6.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
42.5%
2.35
2.32 Betano
43.1%
-0.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Puskas Academy favoured against Nyiregyhaza
Our model makes Puskas Academy 53% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 24% and Nyiregyhaza at 23%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Puskas Academy against 1.14 for Nyiregyhaza — a substantial edge to Puskas Academy on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Puskas Academy
Metric
Nyiregyhaza
2.60
Goals scored
2.60
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
2.20
2.02 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.48
—
Big chances *
—
4.67
Shots on target
5.00 (better)
15.33 (better)
Total shots
13.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.33 (better)
Corners
4.67
48.7
Possession %
49.3 (better)
371 (better)
Passes
341
—
Tackles
—
21.00
Fouls
19.67 (better)
0.33 (better)
Offsides
1.67
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.00 (better)
Yellow cards
3.67
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Puskas Academy v 
Nyiregyhaza