Predicted Edge

Puskas Academy v Debreceni VSC

Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 51st1–3Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 54th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Puskas Academy Debreceni VSC
8Shots20
3Shots on target8
4Corners8
18Fouls15
2Yellow cards5
1Red cards0
3Offsides0
330Passes439
37%Possession %63%
1.16xG2.14
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Puskas Academy 43%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.18

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Debreceni VSC +0.25

2.38Marathonbet · fair 2.17 · qualifies at 2.23+ · 1.78u
Why this price?

Back Debreceni VSC +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.38 with Marathonbet — Debreceni VSC starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 50% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.17. The offered 2.38 implies only 42%, so the price is 9.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.78 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Puskas Academy 1.47, Debreceni VSC 1.18.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPuskas Academy43.3%2.312.30 William Hill43.5%-0.2
Match resultDraw27.0%3.703.65 Dafabet27.4%-0.4
Match resultDebreceni VSC29.7%3.372.90 Betano34.5%-4.8
Total goalsOver 1.574.7%1.341.20 Betano83.3%-8.6
Total goalsUnder 1.525.3%3.965.00 Betfair20.0%+5.3
Total goalsOver 2.549.3%2.031.60 Bet36562.5%-13.2
Total goalsUnder 2.550.7%1.972.45 Betfair40.8%+9.9
Total goalsOver 3.527.4%3.652.50 Bet36540.0%-12.6
Total goalsUnder 3.572.6%1.381.55 Betano64.5%+8.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes53.9%1.861.50 William Hill66.7%-12.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No46.1%2.172.63 Betfair38.0%+8.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Puskas Academy favoured against Debreceni VSC

Our model makes Puskas Academy 43% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 27% and Debreceni VSC at 30%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Puskas Academy against 1.18 for Debreceni VSC — a clear edge to Puskas Academy on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
0-1 8%
0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Puskas Academy and Debreceni VSC
Puskas Academy Debreceni VSC
13Played13
8-0-5W-D-L6-4-3
1.85Pts / game1.69
1.38Goals for / game1.85
1.15Goals against / game1.38
46%Over 2.554%
46%BTTS62%
38%Clean sheets31%
15%Failed to score15%
2-0-4Home record3-2-2
6-0-1Away record3-2-1
W1StreakW4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Puskas Academy · Debreceni VSC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.2Shots16.6
3.8Shots on target7.0
3.6Corners6.2
3.00Cards3.20
16.4Fouls15.0
42Possession %57
1.08xG1.69
5 matchessample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4Shots11.8
4.2Shots on target3.8
5.4Corners3.8
2.60Cards2.40
12.2Fouls14.6
58Possession %43
1.46xG1.12
5 matchessample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Puskas AcademyMetricDebreceni VSC
2.80 (better)Goals scored2.25
0.80 (better)Goals conceded1.75
1.36Expected goals (xG)1.43 (better)
Big chances
4.33Shots on target6.33 (better)
12.67Total shots12.67
Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)Corners5.00
40.0Possession %52.7 (better)
331Passes378 (better)
Tackles
18.67Fouls13.67 (better)
0.67 (better)Offsides4.33
Throw-ins
3.67Yellow cards3.00 (better)
0.50Red cards0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Puskas Academy wins
2
Draws
1
Debreceni VSC wins
2
Goals / game
2.60
Over 2.5
40%
Both score
60%
Hungarian NB I table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Puskas Academy13805+324Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5
2Ferencvarosi TC12651+1223Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5
3Gyori ETO FC13652+723Gyori ETO FC won 2 of the last 5
4Debreceni VSC13643+622Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5
5Paks13625+220Paks won 3 of the last 5
6Ujpest13535+118Ujpest won 1 of the last 5
7Vasas13445+116Vasas won 0 of the last 5
8Budapest Honved12354-314Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5
9Zalaegerszegi TE13418-713Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5
10MTK Budapest13346-913MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5
11Kisvarda FC13265-312Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5
12Nyiregyhaza13337-1012Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5