Preston v Millwall

24th0–116th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Preston		Millwall
12	Shots	11
1	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	4
8	Fouls	11
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
355	Passes	422
46%	Possession %	54%
0.67	xG	1.15

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Millwall 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.06 – 1.70

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Millwall

2.62William Hill · fair 2.38 · qualifies at 2.45+ · 1.55u

Why this price?

Back Millwall to win at 2.62 with William Hill.

Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.38. The offered 2.62 implies only 38%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.55 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Preston 1.06, Millwall 1.70.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Preston	23.0%	4.34	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-10.3
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.93	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-2.4
Match result	Millwall	51.5%	1.94	2.62 William Hill	38.2%	+13.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.9%	1.30	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.1%	4.32	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.1%	1.92	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.9%	2.09	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.9%	3.35	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.1%	1.43	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.1%	1.85	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.9%	2.18	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+2.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Millwall favoured against Preston

Our model makes Preston 23% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and Millwall at 52%. The goal projection is 1.06 for Preston against 1.70 for Millwall — a substantial edge to Millwall on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Preston and Millwall
Preston		Millwall
15	Played	15
2-2-11	W-D-L	5-3-7
0.53	Pts / game	1.20
0.87	Goals for / game	1.53
2.00	Goals against / game	1.80
60%	Over 2.5	80%
60%	BTTS	47%
7%	Clean sheets	27%
33%	Failed to score	27%
2-1-5	Home record	3-2-2
0-1-6	Away record	2-1-5
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Preston · Millwall

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	13.3
1.8	Shots on target	4.2
3.9	Corners	5.3
2.13	Cards	2.33
12.9	Fouls	12.0
35	Possession %	48
0.97	xG	1.66
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.9	Shots	14.3
5.6	Shots on target	4.3
7.3	Corners	6.2
1.38	Cards	2.25
8.4	Fouls	10.6
65	Possession %	52
1.98	xG	1.45
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Preston	Metric	Millwall
1.20	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.80	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.72	Expected goals (xG)	2.17 (better)
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
13.80 (better)	Total shots	13.40
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	2.00
43.0 (better)	Possession %	37.0
324 (better)	Passes	271
	Tackles
10.60 (better)	Fouls	14.40
0.80 (better)	Offsides	3.20
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Preston wins: 0
Draws: 1
Millwall wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 33%

Preston v Millwall0–12026-10-10
Preston v Millwall0–22026-02-28
Millwall v Preston1–12025-11-08

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5