Prat v Athletic Club

1–67th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Prat		Athletic Club
6	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	10
1	Corners	6
11	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
3	Offsides	2
263	Passes	526
33%	Possession %	67%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 36%
Both score: 60%

Model pick: Prat 49%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.78 – 1.27

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Prat	48.7%	2.06	71.00 Betfair	1.4%	+47.3
Match result	Draw	24.4%	4.11	29.00 Betfair	3.4%	+20.9
Match result	Athletic Club	27.0%	3.71	1.03 William Hill	97.1%	-70.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.3%	1.23	1.01 Betfair	99.0%	-17.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.7%	5.36	17.00 Betfair	5.9%	+12.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	58.8%	1.70	1.12 Bet365	89.3%	-30.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	41.2%	2.42	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+28.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	36.4%	2.75	1.33 Betfair	75.2%	-38.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.6%	1.57	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	+36.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.4%	1.66	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	+23.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.6%	2.52	1.50 BetVictor	66.7%	-27.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Prat favoured against Athletic Club

Our model makes Prat 49% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 24% and Athletic Club at 27%. The goal projection is 1.78 for Prat against 1.27 for Athletic Club — a substantial edge to Prat on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Prat and Athletic Club
Prat		Athletic Club
3	Played	11
2-0-1	W-D-L	4-4-3
2.00	Pts / game	1.45
3.67	Goals for / game	1.36
2.33	Goals against / game	1.00
100%	Over 2.5	45%
67%	BTTS	45%
33%	Clean sheets	45%
0%	Failed to score	27%
1-0-1	Home record	3-2-1
1-0-0	Away record	1-2-2
L1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Prat · Athletic Club

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
6.0	Shots	16.4
2.0	Shots on target	4.7
1.0	Corners	5.3
0.00	Cards	1.77
11.0	Fouls	11.7
33	Possession %	60
—	xG	1.74
1 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
21.0	Shots	10.6
10.0	Shots on target	3.3
6.0	Corners	3.6
1.00	Cards	2.34
11.0	Fouls	14.0
67	Possession %	40
—	xG	0.98
1 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Prat	Metric	Athletic Club
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.40
2.80	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)	1.06
	Big chances
	Shots on target	3.00
	Total shots	13.75
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	5.50
	Possession %	60.3
	Passes	450
	Tackles
	Fouls	9.75
	Offsides	0.33
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	1.50
	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Prat wins: 0
Draws: 0
Athletic Club wins: 1
Goals / game: 7.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Prat v Athletic Club1–62026-10-29