Predicted Edge

Pohang Steelers v Jeju United FC

Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 59th1–1Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 57th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Pohang Steelers Jeju United FC
12Shots10
3Shots on target3
5Corners5
—Fouls—
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
46%Possession %54%
—xG—
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
18%
Both score
44%
Model pick
Jeju United FC 45%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
0.91 – 1.29

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Jeju United FC

3.00Dafabet · fair 2.70 · qualifies at 2.78+ · 1.39u
Why this price?

Back Jeju United FC to win at 3.00 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 45% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 32%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.70. The offered 3.00 implies only 33%, so the price is 11.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.39 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Pohang Steelers 0.91, Jeju United FC 1.29.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPohang Steelers25.7%3.892.70 BetVictor37.0%-11.3
Match resultDraw29.8%3.363.30 Betfair30.3%-0.5
Match resultJeju United FC44.5%2.252.75 Dafabet36.4%+8.2
Total goalsOver 1.565.2%1.531.39 Betano71.9%-6.8
Total goalsUnder 1.534.8%2.873.10 Betfair32.3%+2.6
Total goalsOver 2.537.7%2.652.20 Betfair45.5%-7.7
Total goalsUnder 2.562.3%1.611.67 Bet36559.9%+2.4
Total goalsOver 3.518.1%5.544.10 BetVictor24.4%-6.3
Total goalsUnder 3.581.9%1.221.25 Bet36580.0%+1.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes44.0%2.271.87 Betfair53.5%-9.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No56.0%1.781.91 William Hill52.4%+3.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Jeju United FC favoured against Pohang Steelers

Our model makes Pohang Steelers 26% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 30% and Jeju United FC at 45%. The goal projection is 0.91 for Pohang Steelers against 1.29 for Jeju United FC — a clear edge to Jeju United FC on expected output. A combined 2.20 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 38% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 14%
0-1 14%
0-0 12%
1-0 9%
0-2 9%

This season

Season records for Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC
Pohang Steelers Jeju United FC
35Played35
11-11-13W-D-L12-12-11
1.26Pts / game1.37
0.94Goals for / game1.17
1.20Goals against / game1.11
37%Over 2.543%
40%BTTS60%
31%Clean sheets31%
40%Failed to score20%
4-5-6Home record5-8-5
7-6-7Away record7-4-6
D4StreakD2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Pohang Steelers · Jeju United FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
6.2Shots9.6
2.4Shots on target3.4
5.4Corners3.4
1.80Cards2.20
—Fouls—
46Possession %46
—xG—
5 matchessample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.4Shots11.6
4.6Shots on target5.0
4.8Corners3.4
0.80Cards2.00
—Fouls—
54Possession %54
—xG—
5 matchessample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Pohang SteelersMetricJeju United FC
0.80Goals scored1.40 (better)
1.60 (better)Goals conceded2.00
0.50Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
3.25 (better)Shots on target3.00
7.75Total shots11.67 (better)
Touches in opp. box
6.50 (better)Corners3.33
37.0Possession %52.3 (better)
331Passes374 (better)
Tackles
11.33Fouls9.00 (better)
1.33 (better)Offsides2.33
Throw-ins
1.75Yellow cards1.67 (better)
0.33Red cards0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Pohang Steelers wins
2
Draws
1
Jeju United FC wins
2
Goals / game
2.20
Over 2.5
40%
Both score
60%
K League 1 table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1FC Seoul352078+3067FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5
2Ulsan Hyundai FC3517612+757Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 5
3Daejeon Citizen35141110+1453Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 5
4Gangwon FC3512158+1051Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 5
5Jeonbuk Motors35121310+949Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 5
6Incheon United35131012+749Incheon United won 3 of the last 5
7Jeju United FC35121211+248Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5
8FC Anyang35111311-846FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5
9Pohang Steelers35111113-944Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 5
10Gimcheon Sangmu FC356209-738Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5
11Bucheon FC 19953571216-1633Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5
12Gwangju FC3531418-3923Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5