Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5LLWWW4th4–3Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5WWLLL14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
9
Shots
16
5
Shots on target
5
2
Corners
7
14
Fouls
7
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
1
3
Offsides
2
460
Passes
397
53%
Possession %
47%
1.06
xG
1.95
59%
23%
18%
1 · Pogon SzczecinXRadomiak Radom · 2
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Pogon Szczecin 59%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.95
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Pogon Szczecin
59.3%
1.69
1.76 Dafabet
56.8%
+2.5
Match result
Draw
22.9%
4.36
4.10 Dafabet
24.4%
-1.4
Match result
Radomiak Radom
17.7%
5.65
4.60 Dafabet
21.7%
-4.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.4%
1.28
1.20 Betano
83.3%
-5.0
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.6%
4.62
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-0.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
54.4%
1.84
1.65 Betano
60.6%
-6.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.6%
2.19
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
+2.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.1%
3.12
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-6.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.9%
1.47
1.52 Betano
65.8%
+2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.7%
1.90
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-7.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.3%
2.11
2.25 BetVictor
44.4%
+2.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Pogon Szczecin favoured against Radomiak Radom
Our model makes Pogon Szczecin 59% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 23% and Radomiak Radom at 18%. The goal projection is 1.91 for Pogon Szczecin against 0.95 for Radomiak Radom — a commanding edge to Pogon Szczecin on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-0 10%
1-0 10%
2-1 10%
3-0 7%
This season
Season records for Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Pogon Szczecin
Metric
Radomiak Radom
1.60
Goals scored
2.50 (better)
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
3.00
1.56 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.40
—
Big chances *
—
4.25
Shots on target
5.33 (better)
14.50 (better)
Total shots
13.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.75
Corners
7.67 (better)
44.8 (better)
Possession %
43.3
391 (better)
Passes
347
—
Tackles
—
17.50
Fouls
12.00 (better)
2.25
Offsides
0.33 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
1.67
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Pogon Szczecin v 
Radomiak Radom