Predicted Edge

Poblense v AD Ceuta FC

Poblense won 0 of the last 11–2AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 522nd
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
63%
Model pick
Poblense 49%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.36

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPoblense48.6%2.064.50 Betfair22.2%+26.4
Match resultDraw23.6%4.234.40 Dafabet22.7%+0.9
Match resultAD Ceuta FC27.8%3.601.82 Dafabet54.9%-27.2
Total goalsOver 1.583.6%1.201.23 BetVictor81.3%+2.3
Total goalsUnder 1.516.4%6.114.33 Bet36523.1%-6.7
Total goalsOver 2.562.4%1.601.73 Bet36557.8%+4.6
Total goalsUnder 2.537.6%2.662.15 Betfair46.5%-8.9
Total goalsOver 3.540.2%2.492.88 Betfair34.7%+5.5
Total goalsUnder 3.559.8%1.671.44 Bet36569.4%-9.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes63.3%1.581.80 Betfair55.6%+7.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No36.7%2.732.15 Betfair46.5%-9.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Poblense favoured against AD Ceuta FC

Our model makes Poblense 49% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 24% and AD Ceuta FC at 28%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Poblense against 1.36 for AD Ceuta FC — a clear edge to Poblense on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-0 7%
1-2 7%
2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Poblense and AD Ceuta FC
Poblense AD Ceuta FC
1Played13
0-0-1W-D-L1-2-10
0.00Pts / game0.38
1.00Goals for / game0.77
2.00Goals against / game2.31
100%Over 2.562%
100%BTTS62%
0%Clean sheets0%
0%Failed to score38%
0-0-1Home record1-1-5
0-0-0Away record0-1-5
L1StreakL5

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Poblense · AD Ceuta FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots18.3
—Shots on target5.1
—Corners7.1
—Cards3.13
—Fouls12.4
—Possession %53
—xG1.99
—sample8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots12.5
—Shots on target5.3
—Corners3.8
—Cards3.50
—Fouls18.5
—Possession %47
—xG1.99
—sample8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PoblenseMetricAD Ceuta FC
1.20Goals scored1.50 (better)
1.40 (better)Goals conceded1.50
Expected goals (xG)2.54
Big chances
Shots on target5.75
Total shots21.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners8.25
Possession %54.3
Passes406
Tackles
Fouls12.00
Offsides1.50
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.75
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Poblense wins
0
Draws
0
AD Ceuta FC wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%