Plzen v Pardubice

8th1–212th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Plzen		Pardubice
28	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	9
4	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
471	Passes	366
62%	Possession %	38%
2.70	xG	1.05

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Plzen 51%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.77 – 1.16

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.5%	4.87	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	56.0%	1.79	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-3.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.0%	2.27	2.47 Betano	40.5%	+3.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.6%	2.98	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.4%	1.51	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+3.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.4%	1.74	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.6%	2.35	2.25 BetVictor	44.4%	-1.8
Match result	Plzen	51.2%	1.95	1.70 Dafabet	58.8%	-7.6
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	4.33 Betfair	23.1%	+1.4
Match result	Pardubice	24.3%	4.12	5.80 Dafabet	17.2%	+7.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.5%	1.26	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-2.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Plzen favoured against Pardubice

Our model makes Plzen 51% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Pardubice at 24%. The goal projection is 1.77 for Plzen against 1.16 for Pardubice — a substantial edge to Plzen on expected output. A combined 2.92 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Plzen and Pardubice
Plzen		Pardubice
14	Played	14
5-5-4	W-D-L	5-2-7
1.43	Pts / game	1.21
2.07	Goals for / game	1.36
1.57	Goals against / game	1.43
71%	Over 2.5	71%
71%	BTTS	71%
29%	Clean sheets	14%
7%	Failed to score	21%
2-3-3	Home record	2-1-3
3-2-1	Away record	3-1-4
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Plzen · Pardubice

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.5	Shots	15.2
5.3	Shots on target	6.0
5.3	Corners	6.4
2.33	Cards	1.60
9.3	Fouls	14.4
45	Possession %	48
2.06	xG	1.77
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	18.4
4.2	Shots on target	4.6
8.0	Corners	4.6
2.50	Cards	1.20
12.8	Fouls	9.8
56	Possession %	52
1.58	xG	1.90
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Plzen	Metric	Pardubice
1.40	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.95 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.40
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
16.60 (better)	Total shots	14.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)	Corners	4.33
45.0	Possession %	48.3 (better)
400	Passes	431 (better)
	Tackles
11.20 (better)	Fouls	14.67
1.40	Offsides	0.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Plzen wins: 1
Draws: 0
Pardubice wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Plzen v Pardubice1–22026-10-25
Plzen v Pardubice0–12026-04-19
Pardubice v Plzen1–52025-07-18

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5