Predicted Edge

Plymouth Parkway v Horsham

Plymouth Parkway won 4 of the last 52–1Horsham won 1 of the last 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
46%
Both score
69%
Model pick
Horsham 39%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.77

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPlymouth Parkway37.1%2.692.60 BetVictor38.5%-1.3
Match resultDraw23.5%4.263.60 Betfair27.8%-4.3
Match resultHorsham39.4%2.542.47 Betano40.5%-1.1
Total goalsOver 1.586.7%1.151.21 Betano82.6%+4.1
Total goalsUnder 1.513.3%7.544.40 BetVictor22.7%-9.5
Total goalsOver 2.567.5%1.481.67 Bet36559.9%+7.6
Total goalsUnder 2.532.5%3.082.20 BetVictor45.5%-13.0
Total goalsOver 3.545.9%2.182.63 BetVictor38.0%+7.9
Total goalsUnder 3.554.1%1.851.45 Betano69.0%-14.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes68.5%1.461.53 Betano65.4%+3.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No31.5%3.172.40 BetVictor41.7%-10.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Plymouth Parkway v Horsham: too close to call

Our model makes Plymouth Parkway 37% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Horsham at 39%. The goal projection is 1.71 for Plymouth Parkway against 1.77 for Horsham — almost nothing to Horsham on expected output. A combined 3.48 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
1-2 8%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
0-1 5%

This season

Season records for Plymouth Parkway and Horsham
Plymouth Parkway Horsham
5Played2
4-1-0W-D-L1-0-1
2.60Pts / game1.50
2.00Goals for / game2.00
0.60Goals against / game1.00
40%Over 2.5100%
60%BTTS50%
40%Clean sheets50%
0%Failed to score0%
2-1-0Home record0-0-0
2-0-0Away record1-0-1
D1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Plymouth Parkway · Horsham

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.0Shots—
1.0Shots on target—
2.0Corners—
1.00Cards—
15.0Fouls—
54Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample—

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
7.0Shots—
0.5Shots on target—
2.5Corners—
0.50Cards—
15.0Fouls—
47Possession %—
—xG—
2 matchessample—

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Plymouth ParkwayMetricHorsham
2.00 (better)Goals scored1.20
1.00 (better)Goals conceded1.20
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Plymouth Parkway wins
1
Draws
0
Horsham wins
0
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%