Pisa v Cremonese

8th3–110th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Pisa		Cremonese
14	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	3
7	Corners	6
11	Fouls	11
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	1
443	Passes	349
55%	Possession %	45%
2.39	xG	0.51

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Cremonese 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.39

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Pisa -0.5

2.22Betano · fair 2.00 · qualifies at 2.06+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Pisa -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.22 with Betano — Pisa must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 60%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.00. The offered 2.22 implies only 45%, so the price is 11.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Pisa 1.32, Cremonese 1.39.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Pisa	34.9%	2.87	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-9.5
Match result	Draw	26.9%	3.71	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	-3.4
Match result	Cremonese	38.2%	2.62	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+9.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.0%	1.31	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+3.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.0%	4.17	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-6.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.0%	1.96	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+3.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.0%	2.04	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-7.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.0%	3.45	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	+2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.0%	1.41	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.8%	1.79	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.2%	2.26	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-6.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Pisa v Cremonese: too close to call

Our model makes Pisa 35% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 27% and Cremonese at 38%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Pisa against 1.39 for Cremonese — almost nothing to Cremonese on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Pisa and Cremonese
Pisa		Cremonese
11	Played	11
4-4-3	W-D-L	4-3-4
1.45	Pts / game	1.36
1.82	Goals for / game	1.27
1.55	Goals against / game	1.09
73%	Over 2.5	45%
64%	BTTS	36%
18%	Clean sheets	36%
18%	Failed to score	45%
2-2-2	Home record	2-1-2
2-2-1	Away record	2-2-2
D1	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Pisa · Cremonese

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.7	Shots	11.2
5.3	Shots on target	4.2
7.0	Corners	3.2
2.29	Cards	1.83
9.6	Fouls	10.0
53	Possession %	43
2.00	xG	1.46
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.4	Shots	14.7
3.4	Shots on target	4.5
5.1	Corners	5.0
1.71	Cards	2.67
11.6	Fouls	10.5
47	Possession %	57
1.11	xG	1.40
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Pisa	Metric	Cremonese
1.20	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.08	Expected goals (xG)	1.57 (better)
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	5.67 (better)
11.50	Total shots	13.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75 (better)	Corners	2.67
43.3	Possession %	55.7 (better)
417	Passes	532 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	8.00 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.33
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.25	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Pisa wins: 2
Draws: 0
Cremonese wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Pisa v Cremonese3–12026-10-17
Cremonese v Pisa3–02026-05-10
Pisa v Cremonese1–02025-11-07

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5