Predicted Edge

Pinatar v Elche

Pinatar won 2 of the last 31–3Elche won 1 of the last 518th
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
42%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Pinatar 53%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.32

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsOver 3.542.5%2.351.60 Betfair62.5%-20.0
Total goalsUnder 3.557.5%1.742.30 Betfair43.5%+14.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes63.9%1.563.90 William Hill25.6%+38.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No36.1%2.771.30 Betfair76.9%-40.9
Match resultPinatar52.7%1.9076.00 Betfair1.3%+51.4
Match resultDraw22.6%4.4221.00 Dafabet4.8%+17.8
Match resultElche24.7%4.041.03 Betfair97.1%-72.4
Total goalsOver 1.584.9%1.181.09 Betano91.7%-6.8
Total goalsUnder 1.515.1%6.6210.00 Bet36510.0%+5.1
Total goalsOver 2.564.5%1.551.22 Bet36582.0%-17.4
Total goalsUnder 2.535.5%2.824.33 Betfair23.1%+12.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Pinatar favoured against Elche

Our model makes Pinatar 53% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 23% and Elche at 25%. The goal projection is 2.00 for Pinatar against 1.32 for Elche — a substantial edge to Pinatar on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 10%
2-0 7%
1-0 7%
3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Pinatar and Elche
Pinatar Elche
3Played12
2-0-1W-D-L2-4-6
2.00Pts / game0.83
4.00Goals for / game1.17
1.00Goals against / game1.67
100%Over 2.550%
33%BTTS50%
67%Clean sheets25%
0%Failed to score42%
1-0-1Home record0-1-5
1-0-0Away record2-3-1
L1StreakL2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Pinatar · Elche

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots12.1
—Shots on target3.6
—Corners4.7
—Cards3.17
—Fouls12.6
—Possession %51
—xG1.25
—sample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots15.9
—Shots on target4.6
—Corners4.7
—Cards2.00
—Fouls13.1
—Possession %49
—xG1.69
—sample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (2 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PinatarMetricElche
5.50 (better)Goals scored1.20
0.00 (better)Goals conceded1.00
Expected goals (xG)0.86
Big chances
Shots on target2.60
Total shots8.60
Touches in opp. box
Corners3.20
Possession %46.4
Passes436
Tackles
Fouls13.60
Offsides1.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards2.80
Red cards1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Pinatar wins
0
Draws
0
Elche wins
1
Goals / game
4.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%