Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5WDWDL4th1–1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5WDLDL11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Petrolul Ploiesti
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
13
Shots
11
4
Shots on target
4
7
Corners
2
15
Fouls
12
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
464
Passes
363
56%
Possession %
44%
1.13
xG
1.29
46%
30%
23%
1 · Petrolul PloiestiXSepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 2
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
16%
Both score
41%
Model pick
Petrolul Ploiesti 46%
Likely score
1-0 15%
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.83
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Petrolul Ploiesti
46.4%
2.15
2.15 William Hill
46.5%
-0.1
Match result
Draw
30.1%
3.32
3.40 Betfair
29.4%
+0.7
Match result
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
23.4%
4.27
3.95 Betano
25.3%
-1.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
63.0%
1.59
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-11.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
37.0%
2.70
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+7.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
35.3%
2.83
2.10 Betano
47.6%
-12.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
64.7%
1.55
1.85 Betano
54.1%
+10.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
16.3%
6.12
3.65 Betano
27.4%
-11.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
83.7%
1.20
1.32 Betano
75.8%
+7.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
41.4%
2.42
1.83 Betano
54.6%
-13.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
58.6%
1.71
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
+8.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Petrolul Ploiesti favoured against Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Our model makes Petrolul Ploiesti 46% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 30% and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 23%. The goal projection is 1.28 for Petrolul Ploiesti against 0.83 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — a clear edge to Petrolul Ploiesti on expected output. A combined 2.11 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-0 15%
1-1 14%
0-0 13%
2-0 10%
0-1 9%
This season
Season records for Petrolul Ploiesti and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Petrolul Ploiesti
Metric
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
0.80
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
1.58 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.05
—
Big chances *
—
4.67 (better)
Shots on target
3.50
13.00 (better)
Total shots
12.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.33
Corners
2.50 (better)
42.0
Possession %
49.3 (better)
304
Passes
452 (better)
—
Tackles
—
8.67 (better)
Fouls
13.75
1.33
Offsides
1.33
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.33
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
—
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Petrolul Ploiesti v 
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe