Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5WDWDL4th1–1CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5DDDLW9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Petrolul Ploiesti
CFR 1907 Cluj
26
Shots
12
6
Shots on target
6
8
Corners
3
7
Fouls
12
4
Yellow cards
3
—
Red cards
—
1
Offsides
1
485
Passes
208
71%
Possession %
29%
—
xG
—
39%
28%
33%
1 · Petrolul PloiestiXCFR 1907 Cluj · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Petrolul Ploiesti 39%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.21
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.1%
1.37
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-1.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.9%
3.71
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-2.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
47.1%
2.12
2.02 Betano
49.5%
-2.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
52.9%
1.89
1.85 Bet365
54.1%
-1.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.5%
3.92
3.70 Betano
27.0%
-1.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.5%
1.34
1.32 Betano
75.8%
-1.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.6%
1.90
1.82 Betano
54.9%
-2.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.4%
2.11
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-0.2
Match result
Petrolul Ploiesti
39.4%
2.54
2.75 Betano
36.4%
+3.0
Match result
Draw
27.8%
3.59
3.30 Betfair
30.3%
-2.5
Match result
CFR 1907 Cluj
32.8%
3.05
3.20 Betfair
31.3%
+1.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Petrolul Ploiesti v CFR 1907 Cluj: too close to call
Our model makes Petrolul Ploiesti 39% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 28% and CFR 1907 Cluj at 33%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Petrolul Ploiesti against 1.21 for CFR 1907 Cluj — a slight edge to Petrolul Ploiesti on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
0-1 9%
2-1 9%
0-0 8%
This season
Season records for Petrolul Ploiesti and CFR 1907 Cluj
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Petrolul Ploiesti
Metric
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.60
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.17
Expected goals (xG)
2.22 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
4.67 (better)
Shots on target
4.25
13.00 (better)
Total shots
12.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00 (better)
Corners
3.75
53.3 (better)
Possession %
46.3
404 (better)
Passes
372
—
Tackles
—
13.67
Fouls
12.25 (better)
1.33
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Petrolul Ploiesti v 
CFR 1907 Cluj