Penafiel v 
Leça
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Both score
- 62%
- Model pick
- Penafiel 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.55 – 1.53
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Penafiel | 37.9% | 2.64 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -22.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.0% | 4.00 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | -1.6 |
| Match result | Leça | 37.1% | 2.70 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.8% | 1.22 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | +3.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.2% | 5.50 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | -6.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | 1.90 Bet365 | 52.6% | +6.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.05 Bet365 | 48.8% | -8.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.1% | 2.69 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | +6.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -8.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.3% | 1.60 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | +6.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.7% | 2.65 | 2.00 William Hill | 50.0% | -12.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Penafiel v Leça: too close to call
Our model makes Penafiel 38% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 25% and Leça at 37%. The goal projection is 1.55 for Penafiel against 1.53 for Leça — almost nothing to Penafiel on expected output. A combined 3.08 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 0-1 6%
This season
| Penafiel | Leça | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Played | 2 |
| 1-0-1 | W-D-L | 2-0-0 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 3.00 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.50 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 0.00 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 0% |
| 50% | BTTS | 0% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 100% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 0-0-1 | Home record | 0-0-0 |
| 1-0-0 | Away record | 2-0-0 |
| L1 | Streak | W2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Penafiel · Leça
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Penafiel | Metric | Leça |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 12.00 | Shots on target | |
| 30.00 | Total shots | |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 8.00 | Corners | |
| 62.0 | Possession % | |
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.67 | Yellow cards | |
| 0.67 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Penafiel wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Leça wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Penafiel v Leça0–12026-10-17