Predicted Edge

Peña Sport v Huesca

Peña Sport won 0 of the last 11–5

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Peña Sport Huesca
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Peña Sport 45%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.25

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPeña Sport44.6%2.245.25 Bet36519.0%+25.6
Match resultDraw25.8%3.873.70 Betfair27.0%-1.2
Match resultHuesca29.5%3.381.80 Betfair55.6%-26.0
Total goalsOver 1.578.1%1.281.32 Betano75.8%+2.4
Total goalsUnder 1.521.9%4.583.75 Bet36526.7%-4.8
Total goalsOver 2.554.0%1.851.90 Bet36552.6%+1.4
Total goalsUnder 2.546.0%2.171.90 Bet36552.6%-6.6
Total goalsOver 3.531.7%3.153.40 Bet36529.4%+2.3
Total goalsUnder 3.568.3%1.461.33 Bet36575.2%-6.9
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes57.4%1.741.91 Bet36552.4%+5.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No42.6%2.351.95 Bet36551.3%-8.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Peña Sport favoured against Huesca

Our model makes Peña Sport 45% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 26% and Huesca at 30%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Peña Sport against 1.25 for Huesca — a clear edge to Peña Sport on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-0 9%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Peña Sport and Huesca
Peña Sport Huesca
1Played—
0-0-1W-D-L—
0.00Pts / game—
1.00Goals for / game—
5.00Goals against / game—
100%Over 2.5—
100%BTTS—
0%Clean sheets—
0%Failed to score—
0-0-1Home record—
0-0-0Away record—
L1Streak—

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Peña Sport · Huesca

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
2.00Cards3.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
3.00Cards2.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Peña SportMetricHuesca
1.40Goals scored1.40
1.40Goals conceded1.00 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Peña Sport wins
0
Draws
0
Huesca wins
1
Goals / game
6.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%