PEC Zwolle won 2 of the last 5DWDWL13th1–2FC OSS won 1 of the last 1W
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
PEC Zwolle
FC OSS
14
Shots
7
6
Shots on target
4
8
Corners
6
12
Fouls
12
0
Yellow cards
1
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
1
650
Passes
262
72%
Possession %
28%
—
xG
—
25%
21%
54%
1 · PEC ZwolleXFC OSS · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
49%
Both score
68%
Model pick
FC OSS 54%
Likely score
1-2 9%
Expected goals
1.44 – 2.17
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
PEC Zwolle
24.7%
4.05
1.33 William Hill
75.2%
-50.5
Match result
Draw
21.4%
4.68
5.80 Dafabet
17.2%
+4.1
Match result
FC OSS
53.9%
1.85
8.50 Betfair
11.8%
+42.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.0%
1.14
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
+2.5
Total goals
Under 1.5
12.0%
8.31
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-4.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
69.9%
1.43
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
+4.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
30.1%
3.33
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
-7.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
48.7%
2.05
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+6.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
51.3%
1.95
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-8.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
68.0%
1.47
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+14.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.0%
3.13
1.93 Betano
51.8%
-19.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC OSS favoured against PEC Zwolle
Our model makes PEC Zwolle 25% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 21% and FC OSS at 54%. The goal projection is 1.44 for PEC Zwolle against 2.17 for FC OSS — a substantial edge to FC OSS on expected output. A combined 3.61 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 70% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-2 9%
1-1 9%
1-3 7%
2-2 7%
0-2 6%
This season
Season records for PEC Zwolle and FC OSS
PEC Zwolle
FC OSS
12
Played
1
3-3-6
W-D-L
1-0-0
1.00
Pts / game
3.00
1.08
Goals for / game
2.00
2.00
Goals against / game
1.00
50%
Over 2.5
100%
50%
BTTS
100%
17%
Clean sheets
0%
33%
Failed to score
0%
2-0-4
Home record
0-0-0
1-3-2
Away record
1-0-0
D1
Streak
W1
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. PEC Zwolle · FC OSS
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
Season per-match averages, produced
15.8
Shots
7.0
5.5
Shots on target
4.0
5.8
Corners
6.0
1.33
Cards
1.00
11.0
Fouls
12.0
49
Possession %
28
1.22
xG
—
6 matches
sample
1 matches
Conceded
Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3
Shots
14.0
4.5
Shots on target
6.0
4.7
Corners
8.0
1.67
Cards
0.00
10.7
Fouls
12.0
52
Possession %
72
1.32
xG
—
6 matches
sample
1 matches
Form comparison
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PEC Zwolle
Metric
FC OSS
1.20
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
2.80
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
0.90
Expected goals (xG)
1.83 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.00 (better)
Shots on target
4.20
12.60 (better)
Total shots
12.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.60
43.4 (better)
Possession %
39.6
381 (better)
Passes
327
—
Tackles
—
10.80 (better)
Fouls
14.80
1.67 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.40
Yellow cards
1.20 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.25
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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PEC Zwolle v 
FC OSS