PAU v Grenoble

5th2–117th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
PAU		Grenoble
16	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
4	Corners	1
22	Fouls	20
5	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
590	Passes	277
68%	Possession %	32%
1.37	xG	0.76

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Grenoble 37%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.28 – 1.31

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

PAU -0.75

1.95Marathonbet · fair 1.81 · qualifies at 1.87+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back PAU -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.95 with Marathonbet — PAU must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 73%; we judge it at 55%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.81. The offered 1.95 implies only 51%, so the price is 7.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: PAU 1.28, Grenoble 1.31.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	PAU	35.4%	2.83	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-16.4
Match result	Draw	27.7%	3.61	3.60 Betano	27.8%	-0.1
Match result	Grenoble	36.9%	2.71	4.70 Dafabet	21.3%	+15.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.7%	1.36	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.3%	3.80	3.45 Betano	29.0%	-2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.9%	2.09	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+0.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.1%	1.92	1.80 Betano	55.6%	-3.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.2%	3.82	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-0.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.8%	1.35	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-4.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.3%	1.88	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.7%	2.14	1.90 Betfair	52.6%	-6.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

PAU v Grenoble: too close to call

Our model makes PAU 35% to win this Ligue 2 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Grenoble at 37%. The goal projection is 1.28 for PAU against 1.31 for Grenoble — almost nothing to Grenoble on expected output. A combined 2.59 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for PAU and Grenoble
PAU		Grenoble
12	Played	12
6-2-4	W-D-L	3-2-7
1.67	Pts / game	0.92
1.33	Goals for / game	1.08
1.08	Goals against / game	1.83
42%	Over 2.5	58%
50%	BTTS	50%
17%	Clean sheets	25%
33%	Failed to score	33%
3-1-3	Home record	1-2-3
3-1-1	Away record	2-0-4
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. PAU · Grenoble

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	12.6
4.8	Shots on target	4.2
3.0	Corners	4.2
3.20	Cards	2.60
16.0	Fouls	18.2
48	Possession %	41
1.33	xG	1.22
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.6	Shots	15.8
3.8	Shots on target	6.2
4.4	Corners	5.6
3.00	Cards	2.60
19.0	Fouls	17.8
52	Possession %	59
1.66	xG	1.68
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PAU	Metric	Grenoble
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.20	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
7.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.50
17.00 (better)	Total shots	9.75
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.50
48.0 (better)	Possession %	43.5
401 (better)	Passes	382
	Tackles
18.25	Fouls	14.75 (better)
3.25	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

PAU wins: 1
Draws: 2
Grenoble wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 100%

PAU v Grenoble2–12026-10-23
PAU v Grenoble2–22026-01-23
Grenoble v PAU1–12025-10-17

Ligue 2 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Saint Etienne	12	9	1	2	+14	28	Saint Etienne won 4 of the last 5
2	Nancy	12	8	1	3	+8	25	Nancy won 5 of the last 5
3	Montpellier	12	7	3	2	+9	24	Montpellier won 4 of the last 5
4	Reims	12	5	6	1	+9	21	Reims won 2 of the last 5
5	PAU	12	6	2	4	+3	20	PAU won 4 of the last 5
6	Dijon	12	5	3	4	+2	18	Dijon won 3 of the last 5
7	Metz	12	4	5	3	+1	17	Metz won 2 of the last 5
8	RED Star FC 93	12	5	2	5	-3	17	RED Star FC 93 won 1 of the last 5
9	Annecy	12	5	1	6	-4	16	Annecy won 2 of the last 5
10	Dunkerque	12	4	3	5	0	15	Dunkerque won 2 of the last 5
11	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-2	14	Guingamp won 2 of the last 5
12	Boulogne	12	2	7	3	+2	13	Boulogne won 2 of the last 5
13	Rodez	12	4	1	7	-6	13	Rodez won 2 of the last 5
14	Nantes	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Nantes won 1 of the last 5
15	Clermont Foot	12	1	8	3	-4	11	Clermont Foot won 1 of the last 5
16	Sochaux	12	2	5	5	-7	11	Sochaux won 0 of the last 5
17	Grenoble	12	3	2	7	-9	11	Grenoble won 1 of the last 5
18	Laval	12	2	3	7	-9	9	Laval won 1 of the last 5