Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans

1st3–115th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Paris Saint Germain		Le Mans
22	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	4
3	Fouls	17
0	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	5
709	Passes	256
72%	Possession %	28%
4.33	xG	1.49

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Paris Saint Germain 59%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.02 – 1.08

Advised bets

Won

Free pick

Both teams to score — Yes

2.10Bet365 · fair 1.98 · qualifies at 2.07+ · 1.43u

Why this price?

Back both teams to score at 2.10 with Bet365 — each side scores at least once.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.98. The offered 2.10 implies only 48%, so the price is 6.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.43 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.02, Le Mans 1.08.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Paris Saint Germain	58.5%	1.71	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-28.5
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.47	13.00 William Hill	7.7%	+14.7
Match result	Le Mans	19.1%	5.23	31.00 Betfair	3.2%	+15.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.1%	1.22	1.08 Betano	92.6%	-10.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.9%	5.59	11.00 Betfair	9.1%	+8.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.9%	1.67	1.29 Betfair	77.5%	-17.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.1%	2.49	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	+16.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.5%	2.67	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-19.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.5%	1.60	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+19.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.9%	1.73	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+12.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.1%	2.37	1.83 William Hill	54.6%	-12.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Paris Saint Germain favoured against Le Mans

Our model makes Paris Saint Germain 58% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 22% and Le Mans at 19%. The goal projection is 2.02 for Paris Saint Germain against 1.08 for Le Mans — a commanding edge to Paris Saint Germain on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 9%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for Paris Saint Germain and Le Mans
Paris Saint Germain		Le Mans
10	Played	10
7-2-1	W-D-L	1-5-4
2.30	Pts / game	0.80
2.20	Goals for / game	1.20
1.00	Goals against / game	1.90
70%	Over 2.5	60%
70%	BTTS	80%
30%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	20%
3-0-1	Home record	1-3-1
4-2-0	Away record	0-2-3
W7	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Paris Saint Germain · Le Mans

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.0	Shots	11.0
8.4	Shots on target	3.2
5.0	Corners	3.0
0.86	Cards	2.67
6.3	Fouls	15.2
68	Possession %	47
2.42	xG	1.08
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	12.8
4.7	Shots on target	5.2
3.3	Corners	4.5
2.02	Cards	1.33
12.3	Fouls	10.8
32	Possession %	53
1.26	xG	1.92
7 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Paris Saint Germain	Metric	Le Mans
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.64	Expected goals (xG)	1.96 (better)
	Big chances
9.00 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
24.40 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
5.40 (better)	Corners	3.00
66.6 (better)	Possession %	45.5
716 (better)	Passes	407
	Tackles
6.80 (better)	Fouls	14.50
2.40	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Paris Saint Germain wins: 1
Draws: 0
Le Mans wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans3–12026-10-10

Ligue 1 table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Paris Saint Germain	10	7	2	1	+12	23	Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the last 5
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	+7	21	Lille won 3 of the last 5
3	Paris FC	10	6	2	2	+7	20	Paris FC won 3 of the last 5
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	+8	18	Marseille won 5 of the last 5
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+6	17	Lyon won 2 of the last 5
6	Nice	10	5	2	3	+3	17	Nice won 4 of the last 5
7	Monaco	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Monaco won 0 of the last 5
8	Rennes	10	5	1	4	0	16	Rennes won 2 of the last 5
9	Stade Brestois 29	10	4	3	3	+6	15	Stade Brestois 29 won 3 of the last 5
10	Lorient	10	4	3	3	+1	15	Lorient won 3 of the last 5
11	Lens	10	4	1	5	+2	13	Lens won 3 of the last 5
12	Toulouse	10	3	4	3	+1	13	Toulouse won 2 of the last 5
13	Strasbourg	10	3	1	6	-4	10	Strasbourg won 1 of the last 5
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	-11	10	Auxerre won 1 of the last 5
15	Le Mans	10	1	5	4	-7	8	Le Mans won 0 of the last 5
16	Angers	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Angers won 0 of the last 5
17	Estac Troyes	10	2	2	6	-10	8	Estac Troyes won 1 of the last 5
18	Le Havre	10	0	2	8	-13	2	Le Havre won 0 of the last 5