Pardubice v Zlin

12th3–016th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Pardubice		Zlin
15	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	3
3	Corners	2
15	Fouls	14
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
521	Passes	319
52%	Possession %	48%
2.21	xG	0.29

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Pardubice 49%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.69 – 1.17

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Pardubice -0.75

1.74BetVictor · fair 1.57 · qualifies at 1.62+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Pardubice -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.74 with BetVictor — Pardubice must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 78%; we judge it at 64%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.57. The offered 1.74 implies only 57%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Pardubice 1.69, Zlin 1.17.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Pardubice	48.8%	2.05	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-8.3
Match result	Draw	25.2%	3.96	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	+0.2
Match result	Zlin	26.0%	3.85	6.50 BetVictor	15.4%	+10.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.4%	1.28	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+3.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.6%	4.63	3.90 BetVictor	25.6%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.4%	1.84	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+4.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.6%	2.19	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-5.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.0%	3.12	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+1.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.0%	1.47	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-7.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.8%	1.76	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.2%	2.31	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-10.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Pardubice favoured against Zlin

Our model makes Pardubice 49% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Zlin at 26%. The goal projection is 1.69 for Pardubice against 1.17 for Zlin — a substantial edge to Pardubice on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Pardubice and Zlin
Pardubice		Zlin
14	Played	14
5-2-7	W-D-L	0-3-11
1.21	Pts / game	0.21
1.36	Goals for / game	0.79
1.43	Goals against / game	1.93
71%	Over 2.5	50%
71%	BTTS	57%
14%	Clean sheets	0%
21%	Failed to score	43%
2-1-3	Home record	0-1-7
3-1-4	Away record	0-2-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Pardubice · Zlin

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.2	Shots	8.0
6.0	Shots on target	3.3
6.4	Corners	2.8
1.60	Cards	2.58
14.4	Fouls	15.7
48	Possession %	40
1.77	xG	0.62
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.4	Shots	17.8
4.6	Shots on target	5.0
4.6	Corners	5.0
1.20	Cards	1.58
9.8	Fouls	10.3
52	Possession %	61
1.90	xG	1.74
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Pardubice	Metric	Zlin
2.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.32 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.70
	Big chances
5.67 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
13.00 (better)	Total shots	9.33
	Touches in opp. box
3.33	Corners	6.33 (better)
42.3 (better)	Possession %	28.0
346 (better)	Passes	215
	Tackles
14.33 (better)	Fouls	15.33
1.00	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.33 (better)
1.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Pardubice wins: 2
Draws: 1
Zlin wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Pardubice v Zlin3–02026-10-17
Pardubice v Zlin3–12026-04-25
Zlin v Pardubice2–22025-10-25

Chance Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Slavia Praha	14	10	4	0	+28	34	Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5
2	Slovan Liberec	13	8	2	3	+8	26	Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5
3	Mlada Boleslav	14	7	4	3	+7	25	Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5
4	Sparta Praha	14	7	3	4	+12	24	Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5
5	Sigma Olomouc	14	7	3	4	+2	24	Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5
6	Teplice	14	6	3	5	0	21	Teplice won 1 of the last 5
7	FK Jablonec	14	6	3	5	-2	21	FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5
8	Plzen	14	5	5	4	+7	20	Plzen won 3 of the last 5
9	Bohemians 1905	14	5	5	4	0	20	Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5
10	Zbrojovka Brno	14	6	2	6	-5	20	Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5
11	Hradec Králové	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5
12	Pardubice	14	5	2	7	-1	17	Pardubice won 3 of the last 5
13	Baník Ostrava	13	4	2	7	-13	14	Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5
14	Artis	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Artis won 1 of the last 5
15	Slovácko	14	2	4	8	-13	10	Slovácko won 2 of the last 5
16	Zlin	14	0	3	11	-16	3	Zlin won 0 of the last 5