Pardubice v 
Slovan Liberec
Match statistics
| Pardubice | Slovan Liberec | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 470 | Passes | 266 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 2.35 | xG | 1.38 |
- Over 1.5
- 65%
- Over 2.5
- 37%
- Over 3.5
- 18%
- Both score
- 44%
- Model pick
- Slovan Liberec 39%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.01 – 1.17
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Slovan Liberec +0.25
Why this price?
Back Slovan Liberec +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with Marathonbet — Slovan Liberec starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 64% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 57%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.67. The offered 1.85 implies only 54%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Pardubice 1.01, Slovan Liberec 1.17.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Pardubice | 30.8% | 3.25 | 2.90 William Hill | 34.5% | -3.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.5% | 3.28 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | +1.1 |
| Match result | Slovan Liberec | 38.7% | 2.58 | 2.45 Bet365 | 40.8% | -2.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -11.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 35.3% | 2.83 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +9.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 37.1% | 2.69 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | -14.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | 1.93 Betano | 51.8% | +11.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 17.6% | 5.67 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | -13.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 82.4% | 1.21 | 1.36 Betfair | 73.5% | +8.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 44.5% | 2.25 | 1.70 Bet365 | 58.8% | -14.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 55.5% | 1.80 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | +9.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Slovan Liberec favoured against Pardubice
Our model makes Pardubice 31% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 31% and Slovan Liberec at 39%. The goal projection is 1.01 for Pardubice against 1.17 for Slovan Liberec — a slight edge to Slovan Liberec on expected output. A combined 2.18 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 13%
- 0-0 12%
- 1-0 11%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Pardubice | Slovan Liberec | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 13 |
| 5-2-7 | W-D-L | 8-2-3 |
| 1.21 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 1.36 | Goals for / game | 1.23 |
| 1.43 | Goals against / game | 0.62 |
| 71% | Over 2.5 | 31% |
| 71% | BTTS | 31% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 46% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 2-1-3 | Home record | 3-1-2 |
| 3-1-4 | Away record | 5-1-1 |
| W1 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Pardubice · Slovan Liberec
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.2 | Shots | 19.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 6.4 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 1.50 |
| 14.4 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 48 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.77 | xG | 1.62 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 18.4 | Shots | 11.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.20 | Cards | 2.25 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 52 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.90 | xG | 1.40 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Pardubice | Metric | Slovan Liberec |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded | 0.60 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.09 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 14.00 | Total shots | 17.33 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.33 | Corners | 7.67 (better) |
| 48.3 | Possession % | 58.7 (better) |
| 431 (better) | Passes | 403 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.67 (better) | Fouls | 15.33 |
| 0.33 (better) | Offsides | 2.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Pardubice wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Slovan Liberec wins
- 3
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 67%
- Pardubice v Slovan Liberec1–22026-10-31
- Pardubice v Slovan Liberec0–42025-11-22
- Slovan Liberec v Pardubice2–12025-07-27
Chance Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | +28 | 34 | Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 26 | Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | +7 | 25 | Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +12 | 24 | Sparta Praha won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 24 | Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Teplice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 21 | Teplice won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Plzen | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +7 | 20 | Plzen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Bohemians 1905 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 20 | Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Zbrojovka Brno | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 20 | Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 | Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 17 | Pardubice won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 14 | Baník Ostrava won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Artis | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -13 | 10 | Artis won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -13 | 10 | Slovácko won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Zlin | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -16 | 3 | Zlin won 0 of the last 5 |