PAOK v Iraklis 1908

4th2–19th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
PAOK		Iraklis 1908
18	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	3
4	Corners	3
15	Fouls	17
3	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	1
2	Offsides	0
434	Passes	267
62%	Possession %	38%
2.10	xG	0.84

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: PAOK 61%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 1.99 – 0.93

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	PAOK	61.5%	1.63	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-12.0
Match result	Draw	22.3%	4.49	6.20 Dafabet	16.1%	+6.1
Match result	Iraklis 1908	16.2%	6.16	13.00 Bet365	7.7%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.3%	1.26	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.7%	4.84	4.80 Betano	20.8%	-0.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.7%	1.79	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.3%	2.26	2.42 Betano	41.3%	+3.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.3%	3.00	2.90 BetVictor	34.5%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.7%	1.50	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.7%	1.90	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+7.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.3%	2.11	1.70 William Hill	58.8%	-11.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

PAOK favoured against Iraklis 1908

Our model makes PAOK 61% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Iraklis 1908 at 16%. The goal projection is 1.99 for PAOK against 0.93 for Iraklis 1908 — a commanding edge to PAOK on expected output. A combined 2.91 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. PAOK is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 1-1 11%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 3-0 7%

This season

Season records for PAOK and Iraklis 1908
PAOK		Iraklis 1908
10	Played	10
6-1-3	W-D-L	2-4-4
1.90	Pts / game	1.00
1.90	Goals for / game	1.10
1.30	Goals against / game	1.40
80%	Over 2.5	40%
80%	BTTS	60%
20%	Clean sheets	30%
0%	Failed to score	20%
4-0-1	Home record	1-1-2
2-1-2	Away record	1-3-2
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. PAOK · Iraklis 1908

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.5	Shots	11.0
5.0	Shots on target	3.2
6.2	Corners	2.6
2.73	Cards	2.80
16.5	Fouls	13.4
54	Possession %	41
1.90	xG	0.91
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	14.6
4.2	Shots on target	4.6
4.2	Corners	3.0
3.23	Cards	2.00
13.7	Fouls	15.6
46	Possession %	59
1.46	xG	1.92
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PAOK	Metric	Iraklis 1908
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.83 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.54
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	1.40
11.33 (better)	Total shots	7.80
	Touches in opp. box
3.33 (better)	Corners	2.60
39.7	Possession %	42.8 (better)
306	Passes	337 (better)
	Tackles
16.00 (better)	Fouls	17.60
2.00	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
1.00	Red cards	0.50 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

PAOK wins: 1
Draws: 0
Iraklis 1908 wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

PAOK v Iraklis 19082–12026-10-18

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5