PAOK v Asteras Tripolis

4th2–111th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
PAOK		Asteras Tripolis
12	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	3
17	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	2
454	Passes	466
63%	Possession %	37%
2.09	xG	0.83

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 62%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: PAOK 69%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 2.32 – 0.89

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	PAOK	69.0%	1.45	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-5.6
Match result	Draw	18.6%	5.37	5.40 Betano	18.5%	+0.1
Match result	Asteras Tripolis	12.4%	8.06	10.00 BetVictor	10.0%	+2.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.5%	1.20	1.25 Betano	80.0%	+3.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.5%	6.07	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	-4.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.4%	1.60	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.6%	2.66	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.1%	2.49	2.85 Betano	35.1%	+5.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.9%	1.67	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.7%	1.86	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+6.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.3%	2.16	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-7.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

PAOK favoured against Asteras Tripolis

Our model makes PAOK 69% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 19% and Asteras Tripolis at 12%. The goal projection is 2.32 for PAOK against 0.89 for Asteras Tripolis — a commanding edge to PAOK on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. PAOK is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 1-1 9%; 3-0 8%

This season

Season records for PAOK and Asteras Tripolis
PAOK		Asteras Tripolis
10	Played	10
6-1-3	W-D-L	1-4-5
1.90	Pts / game	0.70
1.90	Goals for / game	0.90
1.30	Goals against / game	1.80
80%	Over 2.5	50%
80%	BTTS	70%
20%	Clean sheets	10%
0%	Failed to score	30%
4-0-1	Home record	1-3-2
2-1-2	Away record	0-1-3
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. PAOK · Asteras Tripolis

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.5	Shots	8.3
5.0	Shots on target	3.2
6.2	Corners	3.0
2.73	Cards	2.20
16.5	Fouls	14.2
54	Possession %	42
1.90	xG	0.76
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.0	Shots	13.2
4.2	Shots on target	4.3
4.2	Corners	5.7
3.23	Cards	2.20
13.7	Fouls	10.5
46	Possession %	58
1.46	xG	1.69
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PAOK	Metric	Asteras Tripolis
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.97 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.71
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	3.75
16.50 (better)	Total shots	8.25
	Touches in opp. box
4.75 (better)	Corners	2.25
53.3 (better)	Possession %	41.0
406 (better)	Passes	323
	Tackles
15.00	Fouls	14.50 (better)
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.25	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

PAOK wins: 2
Draws: 1
Asteras Tripolis wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

PAOK v Asteras Tripolis2–12026-11-01
PAOK v Asteras Tripolis2–02026-03-01
Asteras Tripolis v PAOK3–32025-09-28

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5