Panetolikos v Olympiakos Piraeus

10th0–22nd

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Panetolikos		Olympiakos Piraeus
13	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	7
5	Corners	3
22	Fouls	16
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
371	Passes	448
46%	Possession %	54%
1.31	xG	2.52

Over 1.5: 59%
Over 2.5: 31%
Over 3.5: 13%
Both score: 37%

Model pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 47%
Likely score: 0-1 17%
Expected goals: 0.72 – 1.22

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

1.95Bet365 · fair 1.75 · qualifies at 1.81+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 1.95 with Bet365 — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 69% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 49%; we judge it at 57%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.74. The offered 1.95 implies only 51%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Panetolikos 0.72, Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Panetolikos	21.3%	4.69	10.00 Bet365	10.0%	+11.3
Match result	Draw	31.6%	3.17	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	+12.4
Match result	Olympiakos Piraeus	47.1%	2.12	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-26.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	58.6%	1.71	1.26 Betano	79.4%	-20.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	41.4%	2.41	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+16.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	30.8%	3.25	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-24.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	69.2%	1.44	2.10 Betano	47.6%	+21.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	13.3%	7.55	3.10 BetVictor	32.3%	-19.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	86.7%	1.15	1.44 Betano	69.4%	+17.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	37.0%	2.70	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	63.0%	1.59	1.72 Betano	58.1%	+4.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Olympiakos Piraeus favoured against Panetolikos

Our model makes Panetolikos 21% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 32% and Olympiakos Piraeus at 47%. The goal projection is 0.72 for Panetolikos against 1.22 for Olympiakos Piraeus — a clear edge to Olympiakos Piraeus on expected output. A combined 1.94 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 31% and both teams to score at 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 17%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 17%; 0-0 15%; 1-1 13%; 0-2 11%; 1-0 10%

This season

Season records for Panetolikos and Olympiakos Piraeus
Panetolikos		Olympiakos Piraeus
10	Played	10
3-0-7	W-D-L	7-2-1
0.90	Pts / game	2.30
0.80	Goals for / game	1.60
2.00	Goals against / game	0.50
50%	Over 2.5	20%
20%	BTTS	30%
20%	Clean sheets	60%
60%	Failed to score	10%
2-0-3	Home record	3-1-1
1-0-4	Away record	4-1-0
L7	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Panetolikos · Olympiakos Piraeus

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.8	Shots	16.2
2.0	Shots on target	5.3
4.7	Corners	5.3
2.53	Cards	2.37
14.3	Fouls	15.8
46	Possession %	58
0.68	xG	1.22
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.3	Shots	9.5
6.2	Shots on target	3.3
5.8	Corners	5.2
1.50	Cards	4.33
17.2	Fouls	18.6
54	Possession %	42
2.27	xG	0.91
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Panetolikos	Metric	Olympiakos Piraeus
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
1.09	Expected goals (xG)	1.68 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	4.25 (better)
8.00	Total shots	20.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.20	Corners	9.75 (better)
42.2	Possession %	63.8 (better)
328	Passes	513 (better)
	Tackles
16.00	Fouls	13.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Panetolikos wins: 0
Draws: 0
Olympiakos Piraeus wins: 3
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Panetolikos v Olympiakos Piraeus0–22026-10-18
Olympiakos Piraeus v Panetolikos2–02026-02-21
Panetolikos v Olympiakos Piraeus0–12025-11-30

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5