Panetolikos v OFI

10th0–16th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Panetolikos		OFI
13	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	2
5	Corners	7
11	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	3
281	Passes	478
37%	Possession %	63%
0.72	xG	1.42

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: OFI 43%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.58

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Panetolikos	31.1%	3.21	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	-1.2
Match result	Draw	25.7%	3.89	3.25 BetVictor	30.8%	-5.1
Match result	OFI	43.2%	2.31	2.50 Betano	40.0%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.0%	1.27	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+6.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.0%	4.77	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-8.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.3%	1.81	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+8.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.7%	2.23	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-12.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.9%	3.04	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+8.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.1%	1.49	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-10.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.6%	1.71	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+6.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.4%	2.42	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-6.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

OFI favoured against Panetolikos

Our model makes Panetolikos 31% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 26% and OFI at 43%. The goal projection is 1.31 for Panetolikos against 1.58 for OFI — a clear edge to OFI on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 8%; 0-2 7%

This season

Season records for Panetolikos and OFI
Panetolikos		OFI
10	Played	9
3-0-7	W-D-L	5-1-3
0.90	Pts / game	1.78
0.80	Goals for / game	1.56
2.00	Goals against / game	1.33
50%	Over 2.5	56%
20%	BTTS	44%
20%	Clean sheets	44%
60%	Failed to score	11%
2-0-3	Home record	3-1-0
1-0-4	Away record	2-0-3
L7	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Panetolikos · OFI

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.8	Shots	10.6
2.2	Shots on target	3.6
4.6	Corners	5.4
3.05	Cards	2.25
14.2	Fouls	11.2
48	Possession %	55
0.63	xG	1.47
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.4	Shots	15.6
6.2	Shots on target	6.0
6.4	Corners	5.2
1.60	Cards	2.45
17.4	Fouls	15.2
52	Possession %	45
2.31	xG	1.44
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Panetolikos	Metric	OFI
0.20	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
3.00	Goals conceded	2.60 (better)
0.60	Expected goals (xG)	0.70 (better)
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	2.40 (better)
8.20 (better)	Total shots	7.40
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	4.60 (better)
48.2 (better)	Possession %	47.8
389	Passes	434 (better)
	Tackles
13.80	Fouls	8.20 (better)
0.60 (better)	Offsides	0.80
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.80 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Panetolikos wins: 1
Draws: 0
OFI wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Panetolikos v OFI0–12026-11-01
OFI v Panetolikos1–02026-01-25
Panetolikos v OFI4–22025-10-18

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	9	8	0	1	+16	24	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	9	7	1	1	+11	22	Olympiakos Piraeus won 5 of the last 5
3	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	9	6	0	3	+6	18	PAOK won 3 of the last 5
5	AEK Athens FC	8	5	2	1	+16	17	AEK Athens FC won 3 of the last 5
6	OFI	9	5	1	3	+2	16	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	9	3	2	4	-4	11	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	9	2	4	3	-2	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Levadiakos	9	1	3	5	-8	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
12	Asteras Tripolis	9	1	3	5	-9	6	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
13	Atromitos	8	1	2	5	-3	5	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5