Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis

1st5–111th

14:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Panathinaikos		Asteras Tripolis
27	Shots	5
8	Shots on target	1
9	Corners	1
10	Fouls	7
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
631	Passes	248
72%	Possession %	28%
5.80	xG	0.91

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Panathinaikos 64%
Likely score: 2-0 12%
Expected goals: 1.91 – 0.77

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.5%	4.08	4.80 BetVictor	20.8%	+3.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.3%	1.99	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-9.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.7%	2.01	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	+5.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.3%	3.54	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-9.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.7%	1.39	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+5.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.4%	2.15	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	+6.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.6%	1.87	1.65 William Hill	60.6%	-7.0
Match result	Panathinaikos	63.8%	1.57	1.25 William Hill	80.0%	-16.2
Match result	Draw	22.5%	4.45	6.40 Dafabet	15.6%	+6.9
Match result	Asteras Tripolis	13.7%	7.27	21.00 Betfair	4.8%	+9.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.5%	1.32	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-6.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Panathinaikos favoured against Asteras Tripolis

Our model makes Panathinaikos 64% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Asteras Tripolis at 14%. The goal projection is 1.91 for Panathinaikos against 0.77 for Asteras Tripolis — a commanding edge to Panathinaikos on expected output. A combined 2.69 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Panathinaikos is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 12%; 1-0 12%; 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 3-0 8%

This season

Season records for Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis
Panathinaikos		Asteras Tripolis
10	Played	10
9-0-1	W-D-L	1-4-5
2.70	Pts / game	0.70
2.20	Goals for / game	0.90
0.50	Goals against / game	1.80
50%	Over 2.5	50%
40%	BTTS	70%
50%	Clean sheets	10%
10%	Failed to score	30%
5-0-0	Home record	1-3-2
4-0-1	Away record	0-1-3
W4	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Panathinaikos · Asteras Tripolis

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.2	Shots	8.3
4.7	Shots on target	3.2
7.2	Corners	3.0
2.70	Cards	2.20
15.5	Fouls	14.2
62	Possession %	42
2.23	xG	0.76
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.5	Shots	13.2
2.0	Shots on target	4.3
2.3	Corners	5.7
3.37	Cards	2.20
14.2	Fouls	10.5
38	Possession %	58
0.88	xG	1.69
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Panathinaikos	Metric	Asteras Tripolis
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
2.22 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.14
	Big chances
8.50 (better)	Shots on target	6.00
21.25 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
7.50 (better)	Corners	3.33
66.3 (better)	Possession %	36.3
575 (better)	Passes	301
	Tackles
17.25	Fouls	16.00 (better)
2.75	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.67
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Panathinaikos wins: 3
Draws: 0
Asteras Tripolis wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis5–12026-10-18
Asteras Tripolis v Panathinaikos1–22026-03-22
Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis2–02025-10-26

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5