Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5WWWWL1st2–0AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5WLWWW3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Panathinaikos
AEK Athens FC
16
Shots
15
3
Shots on target
2
6
Corners
6
12
Fouls
17
1
Yellow cards
4
1
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
1
313
Passes
471
40%
Possession %
60%
0.64
xG
1.08
37%
27%
36%
1 · PanathinaikosXAEK Athens FC · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Panathinaikos 37%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.33
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Panathinaikos
36.5%
2.74
2.45 Bet365
40.8%
-4.3
Match result
Draw
27.3%
3.67
3.50 Betfair
28.6%
-1.3
Match result
AEK Athens FC
36.2%
2.76
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+6.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.1%
1.33
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
-0.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.9%
4.01
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-1.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
49.7%
2.01
1.90 Bet365
52.6%
-2.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
50.3%
1.99
2.05 Bet365
48.8%
+1.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
27.8%
3.60
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
-3.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
72.2%
1.39
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
+0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.8%
1.82
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+1.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.2%
2.21
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
+0.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Panathinaikos v AEK Athens FC: too close to call
Our model makes Panathinaikos 37% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 27% and AEK Athens FC at 36%. The goal projection is 1.34 for Panathinaikos against 1.33 for AEK Athens FC — almost nothing to Panathinaikos on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 9%
0-1 9%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
This season
Season records for Panathinaikos and AEK Athens FC
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Panathinaikos
Metric
AEK Athens FC
2.60 (better)
Goals scored
2.50
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
2.87 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
2.06
—
Big chances *
—
6.00
Shots on target
6.25 (better)
18.40 (better)
Total shots
17.25
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.40 (better)
Corners
5.75
63.4 (better)
Possession %
48.0
550 (better)
Passes
434
—
Tackles
—
15.60
Fouls
15.25 (better)
1.80 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Panathinaikos v 
AEK Athens FC