Predicted Edge

Pamplona v Eibar

Pamplona won 0 of the last 10–3Eibar won 1 of the last 54th
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
57%
Model pick
Eibar 51%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.75

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultPamplona24.7%4.0515.00 William Hill6.7%+18.0
Match resultDraw24.7%4.058.00 Betfair12.5%+12.2
Match resultEibar50.7%1.971.35 William Hill74.1%-23.4
Total goalsOver 1.579.2%1.261.23 BetVictor81.3%-2.1
Total goalsUnder 1.520.8%4.825.50 Bet36518.2%+2.6
Total goalsOver 2.555.6%1.801.73 Betfair57.8%-2.2
Total goalsUnder 2.544.4%2.252.60 Bet36538.5%+5.9
Total goalsOver 3.533.2%3.012.50 Betfair40.0%-6.8
Total goalsUnder 3.566.8%1.501.62 Bet36561.7%+5.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes57.2%1.752.63 Betfair38.0%+19.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No42.8%2.341.87 Betfair53.5%-10.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eibar favoured against Pamplona

Our model makes Pamplona 25% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 25% and Eibar at 51%. The goal projection is 1.16 for Pamplona against 1.75 for Eibar — a substantial edge to Eibar on expected output. A combined 2.91 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
1-2 10%
0-1 9%
0-2 8%
2-1 6%

This season

Season records for Pamplona and Eibar
Pamplona Eibar
1Played12
0-0-1W-D-L7-2-3
0.00Pts / game1.92
0.00Goals for / game1.75
3.00Goals against / game1.17
100%Over 2.558%
0%BTTS58%
0%Clean sheets33%
100%Failed to score8%
0-0-1Home record3-2-1
0-0-0Away record4-0-2
L1StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Pamplona · Eibar

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots15.2
—Shots on target5.3
—Corners4.0
—Cards1.67
—Fouls10.0
—Possession %51
—xG1.69
—sample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots16.8
—Shots on target6.2
—Corners7.2
—Cards4.33
—Fouls13.3
—Possession %50
—xG1.88
—sample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PamplonaMetricEibar
0.60Goals scored2.00 (better)
0.60 (better)Goals conceded1.60
Expected goals (xG)1.95
Big chances
Shots on target5.60
Total shots13.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners3.60
Possession %49.4
Passes428
Tackles
Fouls10.80
Offsides1.00
Throw-ins
Yellow cards1.80
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Pamplona wins
0
Draws
0
Eibar wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%