Predicted Edge

Palermo v Carrarese

Palermo won 3 of the last 51st2–1Carrarese won 2 of the last 517th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Palermo Carrarese
19Shots15
7Shots on target4
5Corners7
5Fouls14
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Offsides1
377Passes547
41%Possession %59%
1.93xG1.32
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
29%
Both score
50%
Model pick
Palermo 59%
Likely score
1-0 12%
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.89

Advised bets

VoidMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Palermo -1

1.59Marathonbet · fair 1.43 · qualifies at 1.47+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Palermo -1 on the Asian handicap at 1.59 with Marathonbet — Palermo must win by more than 1 goal.

Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 86%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.59 implies only 63%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Palermo 1.84, Carrarese 0.89.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultCarrarese17.2%5.807.10 Betano14.1%+3.2
Total goalsOver 1.576.1%1.311.18 Betano84.7%-8.7
Total goalsUnder 1.523.9%4.185.50 Bet36518.2%+5.7
Total goalsOver 2.551.2%1.951.57 Bet36563.7%-12.5
Total goalsUnder 2.548.8%2.052.55 Betfair39.2%+9.6
Total goalsOver 3.529.1%3.442.40 Betano41.7%-12.6
Total goalsUnder 3.570.9%1.411.65 Betano60.6%+10.3
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes50.0%2.001.70 William Hill58.8%-8.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No50.0%2.002.20 Betano45.5%+4.5
Match resultPalermo59.2%1.691.48 Bet36567.6%-8.4
Match resultDraw23.6%4.24———

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Palermo favoured against Carrarese

Our model makes Palermo 59% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 24% and Carrarese at 17%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Palermo against 0.89 for Carrarese — a commanding edge to Palermo on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-0 12%
1-1 11%
2-0 11%
2-1 10%
0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Palermo and Carrarese
Palermo Carrarese
11Played11
8-3-0W-D-L3-1-7
2.45Pts / game0.91
2.27Goals for / game0.82
1.18Goals against / game1.27
64%Over 2.545%
82%BTTS45%
18%Clean sheets9%
0%Failed to score45%
5-0-0Home record2-0-4
3-3-0Away record1-1-3
D1StreakL2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Palermo · Carrarese

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.0Shots13.7
6.5Shots on target3.5
3.7Corners4.8
0.83Cards2.50
9.8Fouls14.8
47Possession %55
2.42xG1.50
6 matchessample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.2Shots10.7
3.5Shots on target3.3
4.2Corners4.3
1.00Cards1.83
12.0Fouls10.8
53Possession %45
1.72xG1.07
6 matchessample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
PalermoMetricCarrarese
2.40 (better)Goals scored0.80
1.00Goals conceded0.80 (better)
2.31 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.12
Big chances
6.40 (better)Shots on target3.60
18.60 (better)Total shots10.40
Touches in opp. box
4.00Corners4.00
51.0 (better)Possession %41.0
451 (better)Passes383
Tackles
11.40 (better)Fouls13.60
1.40 (better)Offsides1.50
Throw-ins
1.40 (better)Yellow cards2.20
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Palermo wins
3
Draws
0
Carrarese wins
0
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
67%
Both score
33%
Serie B table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Palermo11830+1227Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2Modena11722+1023Modena won 3 of the last 5
3Ascoli11551+1020Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4Mantova11542+419Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5Hellas Verona11443+616Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6Avellino11443+516Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7Benevento11443+416Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8Pisa11443+316Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9Juve Stabia11443+116Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10Cremonese11434+215Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11Sudtirol11362+115Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12Padova11434-115Padova won 2 of the last 5
13Cesena11362-215Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14Sampdoria11326-711Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15Arezzo11326-1111Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16Virtus Entella11245-310Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17Carrarese11317-510Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18Empoli11236-79Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19Vicenza Virtus10136-116Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20Catanzaro10136-116Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5