Paks v Zalaegerszegi TE

5th2–19th

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Paks		Zalaegerszegi TE
8	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	8
6	Corners	2
18	Fouls	21
2	Yellow cards	6
1	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
310	Passes	440
51%	Possession %	49%
0.70	xG	2.45

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Paks 53%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.01 – 1.33

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.1%	1.56	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.9%	2.78	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	+0.2
Match result	Paks	52.8%	1.90	1.93 Betano	51.8%	+0.9
Match result	Draw	22.6%	4.43	3.85 Betano	26.0%	-3.4
Match result	Zalaegerszegi TE	24.7%	4.05	3.70 Bet365	27.0%	-2.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.0%	1.18	1.14 Betano	87.7%	-2.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.0%	6.67	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.7%	1.54	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-4.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.3%	2.83	2.75 Betfair	36.4%	-1.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.7%	2.34	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.3%	1.75	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Paks favoured against Zalaegerszegi TE

Our model makes Paks 53% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 23% and Zalaegerszegi TE at 25%. The goal projection is 2.01 for Paks against 1.33 for Zalaegerszegi TE — a substantial edge to Paks on expected output. A combined 3.33 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 7%; 1-0 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Paks and Zalaegerszegi TE
Paks		Zalaegerszegi TE
13	Played	13
6-2-5	W-D-L	4-1-8
1.54	Pts / game	1.00
1.85	Goals for / game	1.31
1.69	Goals against / game	1.85
62%	Over 2.5	69%
62%	BTTS	38%
31%	Clean sheets	15%
8%	Failed to score	46%
4-1-2	Home record	4-1-1
2-1-3	Away record	0-0-7
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Paks · Zalaegerszegi TE

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.2	Shots	14.2
4.0	Shots on target	5.3
6.4	Corners	4.0
2.20	Cards	3.00
15.2	Fouls	15.2
52	Possession %	47
1.26	xG	1.68
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	9.5
5.6	Shots on target	5.2
4.2	Corners	3.8
3.20	Cards	3.03
15.8	Fouls	14.2
48	Possession %	53
1.73	xG	0.93
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Paks	Metric	Zalaegerszegi TE
1.80	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.72 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.66
	Big chances
4.75	Shots on target	4.75
17.50 (better)	Total shots	13.75
	Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)	Corners	4.25
54.0 (better)	Possession %	47.0
389 (better)	Passes	370
	Tackles
12.50 (better)	Fouls	13.25
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.33
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Paks wins: 1
Draws: 2
Zalaegerszegi TE wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.40
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 80%

Paks v Zalaegerszegi TE2–12026-11-07
Zalaegerszegi TE v Paks5–22026-08-03
Paks v Zalaegerszegi TE1–12026-03-14
Zalaegerszegi TE v Paks1–02025-11-29
Paks v Zalaegerszegi TE2–22025-08-17

Hungarian NB I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Puskas Academy	13	8	0	5	+3	24	Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5
2	Ferencvarosi TC	12	6	5	1	+12	23	Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5
3	Gyori ETO FC	13	6	5	2	+7	23	Gyori ETO FC won 2 of the last 5
4	Debreceni VSC	13	6	4	3	+6	22	Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5
5	Paks	13	6	2	5	+2	20	Paks won 3 of the last 5
6	Ujpest	13	5	3	5	+1	18	Ujpest won 1 of the last 5
7	Vasas	13	4	4	5	+1	16	Vasas won 0 of the last 5
8	Budapest Honved	12	3	5	4	-3	14	Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5
9	Zalaegerszegi TE	13	4	1	8	-7	13	Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5
10	MTK Budapest	13	3	4	6	-9	13	MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5
11	Kisvarda FC	13	2	6	5	-3	12	Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Nyiregyhaza	13	3	3	7	-10	12	Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5