Paks v Gyori ETO FC

5th1–23rd

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Paks		Gyori ETO FC
22	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	6
8	Corners	0
17	Fouls	8
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	4
454	Passes	392
62%	Possession %	38%
1.58	xG	2.01

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: Gyori ETO FC 46%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.85

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Paks	30.2%	3.31	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-21.0
Match result	Draw	23.5%	4.25	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-0.9
Match result	Gyori ETO FC	46.2%	2.16	3.30 Dafabet	30.3%	+15.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.8%	1.18	1.10 Betano	90.9%	-6.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.2%	6.59	8.00 Bet365	12.5%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.4%	1.55	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-11.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.6%	2.81	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+7.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.3%	2.36	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-13.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.7%	1.73	2.02 Betano	49.5%	+8.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.3%	1.53	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-9.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.7%	2.88	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+3.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gyori ETO FC favoured against Paks

Our model makes Paks 30% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 24% and Gyori ETO FC at 46%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Paks against 1.85 for Gyori ETO FC — a clear edge to Gyori ETO FC on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Paks and Gyori ETO FC
Paks		Gyori ETO FC
13	Played	13
6-2-5	W-D-L	6-5-2
1.54	Pts / game	1.77
1.85	Goals for / game	1.69
1.69	Goals against / game	1.15
62%	Over 2.5	62%
62%	BTTS	62%
31%	Clean sheets	23%
8%	Failed to score	15%
4-1-2	Home record	4-1-2
2-1-3	Away record	2-4-0
W1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Paks · Gyori ETO FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.2	Shots	14.0
4.0	Shots on target	5.3
6.4	Corners	4.0
2.20	Cards	2.20
15.2	Fouls	11.2
52	Possession %	50
1.26	xG	1.83
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	19.0
5.6	Shots on target	6.0
4.2	Corners	5.5
3.20	Cards	3.33
15.8	Fouls	19.0
48	Possession %	51
1.73	xG	1.73
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Paks	Metric	Gyori ETO FC
1.60	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
7.75 (better)	Shots on target	4.50
19.25 (better)	Total shots	14.25
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	3.25
47.3	Possession %	48.3 (better)
325	Passes	401 (better)
	Tackles
12.00	Fouls	10.75 (better)
2.75	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Paks wins: 0
Draws: 2
Gyori ETO FC wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 75%

Paks v Gyori ETO FC1–22026-10-17
Paks v Gyori ETO FC3–42026-02-22
Gyori ETO FC v Paks0–02025-11-01
Paks v Gyori ETO FC3–32025-07-27

Hungarian NB I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Puskas Academy	13	8	0	5	+3	24	Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5
2	Ferencvarosi TC	12	6	5	1	+12	23	Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5
3	Gyori ETO FC	13	6	5	2	+7	23	Gyori ETO FC won 2 of the last 5
4	Debreceni VSC	13	6	4	3	+6	22	Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5
5	Paks	13	6	2	5	+2	20	Paks won 3 of the last 5
6	Ujpest	13	5	3	5	+1	18	Ujpest won 1 of the last 5
7	Vasas	13	4	4	5	+1	16	Vasas won 0 of the last 5
8	Budapest Honved	12	3	5	4	-3	14	Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5
9	Zalaegerszegi TE	13	4	1	8	-7	13	Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5
10	MTK Budapest	13	3	4	6	-9	13	MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5
11	Kisvarda FC	13	2	6	5	-3	12	Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Nyiregyhaza	13	3	3	7	-10	12	Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5