Padova v 
Sudtirol
Match statistics
| Padova | Sudtirol | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 20 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 356 | Passes | 581 |
| 38% | Possession % | 62% |
| 1.47 | xG | 1.85 |
- Over 1.5
- 61%
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Over 3.5
- 15%
- Both score
- 41%
- Model pick
- Padova 34%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.02 – 1.00
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Padova -0.5
Why this price?
Back Padova -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.35 with Betano — Padova must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 56%; we judge it at 48%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.10. The offered 2.35 implies only 43%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Padova 1.02, Sudtirol 1.00.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.76 with Marathonbet — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 67% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.68. The offered 1.76 implies only 57%, so the price is 4.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.60 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Padova 1.02, Sudtirol 1.00.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Padova | 34.3% | 2.91 | 2.45 Betano | 40.8% | -6.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 32.0% | 3.12 | 3.30 Dafabet | 30.3% | +1.7 |
| Match result | Sudtirol | 33.7% | 2.97 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +7.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | -10.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 39.4% | 2.54 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | +8.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | -12.6 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.72 Betano | 58.1% | +9.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 14.7% | 6.82 | 4.20 Betfair | 23.8% | -9.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 85.3% | 1.17 | 1.27 Betano | 78.7% | +6.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 41.1% | 2.43 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -11.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | +7.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Padova v Sudtirol: too close to call
Our model makes Padova 34% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 32% and Sudtirol at 34%. The goal projection is 1.02 for Padova against 1.00 for Sudtirol — almost nothing to Padova on expected output. A combined 2.02 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 33% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 14%
- 1-0 13%
- 0-1 13%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Padova | Sudtirol | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 4-3-4 | W-D-L | 3-6-2 |
| 1.36 | Pts / game | 1.36 |
| 1.09 | Goals for / game | 1.18 |
| 1.18 | Goals against / game | 1.09 |
| 36% | Over 2.5 | 27% |
| 55% | BTTS | 55% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 9% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 2-2-2 | Home record | 2-4-0 |
| 2-1-2 | Away record | 1-2-2 |
| D2 | Streak | D2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Padova · Sudtirol
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 9.8 | Shots | 13.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 3.4 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 11.2 | Fouls | 13.1 |
| 46 | Possession % | 52 |
| 0.91 | xG | 1.33 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 19.8 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Shots on target | 4.9 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.67 | Cards | 2.57 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 55 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.79 | xG | 1.71 |
| 6 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Padova | Metric | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.98 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.80 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 (better) | Shots on target | 3.25 |
| 12.00 (better) | Total shots | 9.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.40 (better) | Corners | 3.25 |
| 46.0 (better) | Possession % | 45.5 |
| 399 | Passes | 463 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.80 (better) | Fouls | 13.25 |
| 4.40 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.75 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Padova wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Sudtirol wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Padova v Sudtirol2–02026-10-27
- Sudtirol v Padova3–02026-01-25
- Padova v Sudtirol1–12025-11-01
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | +12 | 27 | Palermo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Modena | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 23 | Modena won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ascoli | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 20 | Ascoli won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Mantova | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +4 | 19 | Mantova won 1 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Hellas Verona | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +6 | 16 | Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Avellino | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +5 | 16 | Avellino won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Benevento | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Benevento won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Pisa | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +3 | 16 | Pisa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Juve Stabia | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 16 | Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Cremonese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 15 | Cremonese won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Sudtirol | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | +1 | 15 | Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Padova | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 | Padova won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Cesena | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -2 | 15 | Cesena won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Sampdoria | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 | Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Arezzo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 | Arezzo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Virtus Entella | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 | Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 10 | Carrarese won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Empoli | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 9 | Empoli won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Vicenza Virtus | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 | Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 | Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5 |