Oviedo v Las Palmas

9th2–310th

15:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Oviedo		Las Palmas
22	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	5
7	Corners	4
14	Fouls	8
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	1
491	Passes	430
54%	Possession %	46%
1.74	xG	1.68

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Oviedo 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.44 – 1.12

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Oviedo -0.75

1.87Marathonbet · fair 1.69 · qualifies at 1.74+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Oviedo -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.87 with Marathonbet — Oviedo must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 74%; we judge it at 59%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.69. The offered 1.87 implies only 53%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Oviedo 1.44, Las Palmas 1.12.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Oviedo	43.8%	2.28	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-14.3
Match result	Draw	27.5%	3.64	3.90 Bet365	25.6%	+1.8
Match result	Las Palmas	28.7%	3.48	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	+8.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.1%	1.37	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.2%	2.12	1.95 Betano	51.3%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.8%	1.89	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+1.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.6%	3.91	3.40 BetVictor	29.4%	-3.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.4%	1.34	1.35 Betano	74.1%	+0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.1%	1.92	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.9%	3.72	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.9%	2.09	1.93 BetVictor	51.8%	-3.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Oviedo favoured against Las Palmas

Our model makes Oviedo 44% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 27% and Las Palmas at 29%. The goal projection is 1.44 for Oviedo against 1.12 for Las Palmas — a clear edge to Oviedo on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 8%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Oviedo and Las Palmas
Oviedo		Las Palmas
13	Played	13
6-3-4	W-D-L	6-2-5
1.62	Pts / game	1.54
1.46	Goals for / game	1.46
1.23	Goals against / game	1.62
62%	Over 2.5	62%
54%	BTTS	54%
38%	Clean sheets	38%
23%	Failed to score	15%
2-2-2	Home record	3-2-2
4-1-2	Away record	3-0-3
W1	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Oviedo · Las Palmas

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.9	Shots	10.0
5.9	Shots on target	3.6
5.5	Corners	4.3
3.63	Cards	3.64
14.4	Fouls	12.0
51	Possession %	51
1.58	xG	0.86
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	13.8
5.5	Shots on target	5.0
6.1	Corners	5.5
3.27	Cards	2.63
14.0	Fouls	16.5
49	Possession %	49
1.81	xG	1.22
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Oviedo	Metric	Las Palmas
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.97 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.64
	Big chances
6.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
17.20 (better)	Total shots	9.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.40 (better)	Corners	3.20
48.4 (better)	Possession %	47.4
396	Passes	416 (better)
	Tackles
15.40	Fouls	13.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
4.00 (better)	Yellow cards	4.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Oviedo wins: 0
Draws: 0
Las Palmas wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Oviedo v Las Palmas2–32026-11-02

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5