Oţelul v 
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Match statistics
| Oţelul | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 373 | Passes | 367 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 68%
- Over 2.5
- 41%
- Over 3.5
- 21%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Oţelul 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.38 – 0.94
Advised bets
Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe +0.25
Why this price?
Back Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.49 with Marathonbet — Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 46% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 44%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.25. The offered 2.49 implies only 40%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.81 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Oţelul 1.38, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.94.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Oţelul | 46.5% | 2.15 | 2.32 Betano | 43.1% | +3.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.6% | 3.50 | 3.30 Betfair | 30.3% | -1.7 |
| Match result | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 24.9% | 4.01 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | -2.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 68.1% | 1.47 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | -3.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 31.9% | 3.14 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | +1.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 41.1% | 2.43 | 2.18 Betano | 45.9% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | +1.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 20.6% | 4.86 | 4.10 BetVictor | 24.4% | -3.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 79.4% | 1.26 | 1.29 Betfair | 77.5% | +1.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 46.4% | 2.16 | 1.91 Betfair | 52.4% | -6.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 53.6% | 1.86 | 1.90 Betfair | 52.6% | +1.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Oţelul favoured against Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Our model makes Oţelul 46% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 29% and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 25%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Oţelul against 0.94 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — a clear edge to Oţelul on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 13%
- 0-0 10%
- 2-0 9%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| Oţelul | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 2-7-6 | W-D-L | 4-6-5 |
| 0.87 | Pts / game | 1.20 |
| 1.13 | Goals for / game | 0.73 |
| 1.53 | Goals against / game | 1.33 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 27% |
| 67% | BTTS | 40% |
| 7% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 47% |
| 2-4-2 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 0-3-4 | Away record | 1-4-3 |
| D2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Oţelul · Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.0 | Shots | 9.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 2.83 | Cards | 2.05 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 53 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.70 | xG | 1.09 |
| 6 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 12.3 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 3.17 | Cards | 1.45 |
| 12.7 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 47 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.59 | xG | 1.85 |
| 6 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Oţelul | Metric | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.50 (better) | Shots on target | 4.25 |
| 17.50 (better) | Total shots | 12.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Corners | 2.50 |
| 49.8 (better) | Possession % | 49.0 |
| 406 | Passes | 452 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.50 (better) | Fouls | 12.25 |
| 1.00 | Offsides | 1.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.75 | Yellow cards | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Oţelul wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Oţelul v Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe1–12026-11-01
Romanian Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +24 | 33 | Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +21 | 33 | Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Rapid | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 31 | Rapid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 27 | Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 26 | Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 24 | Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 22 | Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FCSB | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | FCSB won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 | CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -9 | 18 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FC Botosani | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 15 | FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 | Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Oţelul won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 8 | FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 6 | Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5 |