Oţelul v Csikszereda

14th1–116th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Oţelul		Csikszereda
29	Shots	14
12	Shots on target	6
10	Corners	2
12	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	2
0	Offsides	1
513	Passes	303
63%	Possession %	37%
2.87	xG	1.43

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Oţelul 62%
Likely score: 2-0 10%
Expected goals: 2.05 – 0.95

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.7%	1.73	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	+8.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.3%	2.37	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-9.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	35.3%	2.83	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+8.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	64.7%	1.55	1.36 Betano	73.5%	-8.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.0%	1.85	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.0%	2.17	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	-9.5
Match result	Oţelul	62.3%	1.61	1.67 Betano	59.9%	+2.4
Match result	Draw	21.5%	4.64	3.90 Betfair	25.6%	-4.1
Match result	Csikszereda	16.2%	6.17	5.20 Dafabet	19.2%	-3.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.6%	1.24	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	+5.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.4%	5.15	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-8.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Oţelul favoured against Csikszereda

Our model makes Oţelul 62% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 22% and Csikszereda at 16%. The goal projection is 2.05 for Oţelul against 0.95 for Csikszereda — a commanding edge to Oţelul on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Oţelul is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 38% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 10%; 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 10%; 3-0 7%

This season

Season records for Oţelul and Csikszereda
Oţelul		Csikszereda
15	Played	15
2-7-6	W-D-L	1-3-11
0.87	Pts / game	0.40
1.13	Goals for / game	0.60
1.53	Goals against / game	1.87
40%	Over 2.5	40%
67%	BTTS	40%
7%	Clean sheets	13%
27%	Failed to score	60%
2-4-2	Home record	1-2-4
0-3-4	Away record	0-1-7
D2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Oţelul · Csikszereda

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.0	Shots	13.0
5.5	Shots on target	3.8
5.8	Corners	2.2
2.83	Cards	2.33
12.0	Fouls	10.8
53	Possession %	39
1.70	xG	0.89
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	20.8
4.2	Shots on target	7.5
3.8	Corners	5.5
3.17	Cards	1.50
12.7	Fouls	9.5
47	Possession %	61
1.59	xG	2.09
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Oţelul	Metric	Csikszereda
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
0.89	Expected goals (xG)	0.92 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.00
14.50 (better)	Total shots	9.75
	Touches in opp. box
5.25 (better)	Corners	2.50
52.0 (better)	Possession %	44.0
437 (better)	Passes	347
	Tackles
11.75 (better)	Fouls	14.50
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
1.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Oţelul wins: 1
Draws: 2
Csikszereda wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 75%

Oţelul v Csikszereda1–12026-10-16
Oţelul v Csikszereda2–32026-03-14
Oţelul v Csikszereda3–02026-01-26
Csikszereda v Oţelul1–12025-09-01

Romanian Liga I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Universitatea Craiova	15	10	3	2	+24	33	Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Bucuresti	15	10	3	2	+21	33	Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5
3	Rapid	15	9	4	2	+10	31	Rapid won 3 of the last 5
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	15	8	3	4	+2	27	Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5
5	Universitatea Cluj	15	8	2	5	+6	26	Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5
6	Farul Constanta	15	6	6	3	+2	24	Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	15	6	4	5	+1	22	Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5
8	FCSB	15	6	3	6	-1	21	FCSB won 3 of the last 5
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	15	5	4	6	-1	19	CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5
10	Uta Arad	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	15	4	6	5	-9	18	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5
12	FC Botosani	15	3	6	6	-1	15	FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5
13	Arges Pitesti	15	4	3	8	-7	15	Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5
14	Oţelul	15	2	7	6	-6	13	Oţelul won 0 of the last 5
15	FC Voluntari	15	2	2	11	-18	8	FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5
16	Csikszereda	15	1	3	11	-19	6	Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5