Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5DLLDW15th0–0Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5DWWLW6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Orgryte IS
Vasteras SK FK
12
Shots
25
3
Shots on target
7
5
Corners
11
7
Fouls
14
3
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
3
316
Passes
553
36%
Possession %
64%
0.77
xG
3.58
27%
23%
50%
1 · Orgryte ISXVasteras SK FK · 2
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
44%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Vasteras SK FK 50%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.96
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Orgryte IS
27.3%
3.66
3.80 Bet365
26.3%
+1.0
Match result
Draw
22.9%
4.37
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-3.4
Match result
Vasteras SK FK
49.8%
2.01
2.30 William Hill
43.5%
+6.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
85.4%
1.17
1.24 Betano
80.6%
+4.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.6%
6.87
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
-8.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
65.4%
1.53
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+8.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
34.6%
2.89
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-12.6
Total goals
Over 3.5
43.5%
2.30
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+8.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
56.5%
1.77
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
-12.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
65.5%
1.53
1.65 William Hill
60.6%
+4.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
34.5%
2.89
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-7.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vasteras SK FK favoured against Orgryte IS
Our model makes Orgryte IS 27% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 23% and Vasteras SK FK at 50%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Orgryte IS against 1.96 for Vasteras SK FK — a substantial edge to Vasteras SK FK on expected output. A combined 3.37 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Orgryte IS
Metric
Vasteras SK FK
1.60 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
2.20
Goals conceded
0.80 (better)
1.17
Expected goals (xG)
1.52 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.20
Shots on target
6.50 (better)
10.60
Total shots
17.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.40
Corners
7.25 (better)
41.6
Possession %
52.0 (better)
409
Passes
503 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.40 (better)
Fouls
11.75
1.20 (better)
Offsides
2.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.40
Yellow cards
1.25 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.25
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Orgryte IS v 
Vasteras SK FK