Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5DLLDW15th1–2Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5DDWLL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Orgryte IS
Mjallby AIF
13
Shots
13
3
Shots on target
5
3
Corners
3
9
Fouls
10
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
446
Passes
569
44%
Possession %
56%
0.81
xG
1.75
34%
26%
41%
1 · Orgryte ISXMjallby AIF · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
60%
Model pick
Mjallby AIF 41%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.56
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Mjallby AIF
40.6%
2.47
2.35 Bet365
42.6%
-2.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.1%
1.25
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
+0.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.9%
5.03
4.10 BetVictor
24.4%
-4.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.9%
1.76
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+1.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.1%
2.32
2.05 Bet365
48.8%
-5.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
34.5%
2.90
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+1.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
65.5%
1.53
1.42 Betano
70.4%
-4.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
60.2%
1.66
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+0.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
39.8%
2.51
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-3.6
Match result
Orgryte IS
33.9%
2.95
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
+0.6
Match result
Draw
25.5%
3.92
3.75 Dafabet
26.7%
-1.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Mjallby AIF favoured against Orgryte IS
Our model makes Orgryte IS 34% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mjallby AIF at 41%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Orgryte IS against 1.56 for Mjallby AIF — a slight edge to Mjallby AIF on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Orgryte IS
Metric
Mjallby AIF
1.40 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
2.40
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
1.27
Expected goals (xG)
1.42 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
2.40
Shots on target
5.50 (better)
8.00
Total shots
13.25 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.00
Corners
5.75 (better)
38.2
Possession %
49.5 (better)
381
Passes
441 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.40 (better)
Fouls
15.75
1.20
Offsides
0.75 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Orgryte IS v 
Mjallby AIF