Olympiakos Piraeus v Kalamata

2nd5–08th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Olympiakos Piraeus		Kalamata
17	Shots	3
10	Shots on target	2
7	Corners	1
—	Fouls	—
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
—	Passes	—
66%	Possession %	34%
0.00	xG	0.00

Over 1.5: 64%
Over 2.5: 36%
Over 3.5: 17%
Both score: 39%

Model pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 55%
Likely score: 1-0 16%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 0.69

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Olympiakos Piraeus	55.2%	1.81	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-29.5
Match result	Draw	27.8%	3.60	8.60 Dafabet	11.6%	+16.2
Match result	Kalamata	17.0%	5.89	25.00 Betano	4.0%	+13.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	64.0%	1.56	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-20.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	36.0%	2.77	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+17.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	36.5%	2.74	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-28.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	63.5%	1.57	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+24.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.1%	5.83	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-24.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.9%	1.21	1.62 Betano	61.7%	+21.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	38.9%	2.57	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	61.1%	1.64	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-2.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Olympiakos Piraeus favoured against Kalamata

Our model makes Olympiakos Piraeus 55% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Kalamata at 17%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Olympiakos Piraeus against 0.69 for Kalamata — a substantial edge to Olympiakos Piraeus on expected output. A combined 2.15 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 36% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 16%; 2-0 12%; 1-1 12%; 0-0 12%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata
Olympiakos Piraeus		Kalamata
10	Played	10
7-2-1	W-D-L	3-3-4
2.30	Pts / game	1.20
1.60	Goals for / game	1.50
0.50	Goals against / game	1.90
20%	Over 2.5	50%
30%	BTTS	70%
60%	Clean sheets	0%
10%	Failed to score	30%
3-1-1	Home record	2-1-2
4-1-0	Away record	1-2-2
D1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Olympiakos Piraeus · Kalamata

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.2	Shots	10.5
5.3	Shots on target	4.7
5.3	Corners	2.3
2.37	Cards	2.50
15.8	Fouls	13.6
58	Possession %	42
1.22	xG	1.43
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.5	Shots	14.0
3.3	Shots on target	4.7
5.2	Corners	6.2
4.33	Cards	2.37
18.6	Fouls	13.4
42	Possession %	58
0.91	xG	1.15
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Olympiakos Piraeus	Metric	Kalamata
1.00	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
1.29	Expected goals (xG)	1.56 (better)
	Big chances
3.80	Shots on target	4.75 (better)
17.00 (better)	Total shots	13.00
	Touches in opp. box
6.60 (better)	Corners	3.25
55.2 (better)	Possession %	40.5
464 (better)	Passes	320
	Tackles
12.80 (better)	Fouls	14.25
1.80 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.20 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.33	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Olympiakos Piraeus wins: 1
Draws: 0
Kalamata wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Olympiakos Piraeus v Kalamata5–02026-10-25

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5