OFI v PAOK

6th2–14th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
OFI		PAOK
12	Shots	26
7	Shots on target	8
5	Corners	9
17	Fouls	16
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
321	Passes	437
42%	Possession %	58%
2.83	xG	2.23

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: PAOK 41%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 1.67

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	OFI	34.0%	2.94	5.25 Bet365	19.0%	+15.0
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.08	3.85 Betano	26.0%	-1.5
Match result	PAOK	41.5%	2.41	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-14.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.0%	1.21	1.27 Betano	78.7%	+4.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.0%	5.88	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-7.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.3%	1.63	1.85 Betano	54.1%	+7.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.7%	2.59	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-10.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.0%	2.56	3.10 BetVictor	32.3%	+6.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.0%	1.64	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-9.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.5%	1.57	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+8.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.5%	2.74	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-12.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

PAOK favoured against OFI

Our model makes OFI 34% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 25% and PAOK at 41%. The goal projection is 1.50 for OFI against 1.67 for PAOK — a slight edge to PAOK on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for OFI and PAOK
OFI		PAOK
10	Played	10
5-2-3	W-D-L	6-1-3
1.70	Pts / game	1.90
1.40	Goals for / game	1.90
1.20	Goals against / game	1.30
50%	Over 2.5	80%
40%	BTTS	80%
50%	Clean sheets	20%
20%	Failed to score	0%
3-2-0	Home record	4-0-1
2-0-3	Away record	2-1-2
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. OFI · PAOK

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	16.5
3.3	Shots on target	5.0
6.0	Corners	6.2
2.37	Cards	2.73
11.7	Fouls	16.5
56	Possession %	54
1.48	xG	1.90
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.2	Shots	10.0
5.0	Shots on target	4.2
5.2	Corners	4.2
2.53	Cards	3.23
15.7	Fouls	13.7
44	Possession %	46
1.25	xG	1.46
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
OFI	Metric	PAOK
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
0.53	Expected goals (xG)	1.69 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	4.25 (better)
9.00	Total shots	13.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	4.25 (better)
42.0	Possession %	45.0 (better)
378 (better)	Passes	356
	Tackles
8.20 (better)	Fouls	14.00
1.60 (better)	Offsides	1.67
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	1.75
0.33 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

OFI wins: 1
Draws: 0
PAOK wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

OFI v PAOK2–12026-10-25
PAOK v OFI3–02026-01-18
OFI v PAOK1–22025-09-14

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5