Odense v Brondby

6th2–15th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Odense		Brondby
13	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
2	Corners	9
8	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
401	Passes	500
44%	Possession %	56%
0.78	xG	2.58

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Brondby 41%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.36

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Odense	31.2%	3.21	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	-2.2
Match result	Draw	28.3%	3.54	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+1.9
Match result	Brondby	40.6%	2.46	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.4%	1.38	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-10.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.6%	3.62	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+7.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.1%	2.17	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-15.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.9%	1.85	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+11.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.6%	4.06	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-15.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.4%	1.33	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.8%	1.93	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-13.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.2%	2.07	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	+8.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brondby favoured against Odense

Our model makes Odense 31% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Brondby at 41%. The goal projection is 1.16 for Odense against 1.36 for Brondby — a slight edge to Brondby on expected output. A combined 2.52 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 9%

This season

Season records for Odense and Brondby
Odense		Brondby
14	Played	14
4-5-5	W-D-L	7-1-6
1.21	Pts / game	1.57
1.14	Goals for / game	1.64
1.36	Goals against / game	1.50
50%	Over 2.5	57%
64%	BTTS	57%
14%	Clean sheets	21%
29%	Failed to score	21%
3-1-3	Home record	5-0-2
1-4-2	Away record	2-1-4
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Odense · Brondby

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.0	Shots	11.3
4.6	Shots on target	4.2
3.8	Corners	5.8
1.20	Cards	1.67
12.0	Fouls	13.8
45	Possession %	49
1.02	xG	1.99
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	14.2
5.2	Shots on target	3.8
7.0	Corners	4.7
1.60	Cards	1.50
8.6	Fouls	11.3
55	Possession %	51
1.85	xG	1.34
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Odense	Metric	Brondby
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
0.82	Expected goals (xG)	0.90 (better)
	Big chances
4.33 (better)	Shots on target	2.67
16.67 (better)	Total shots	13.67
	Touches in opp. box
7.67 (better)	Corners	3.67
53.7	Possession %	57.3 (better)
532 (better)	Passes	508
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	8.00 (better)
2.33	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.33 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Odense wins: 1
Draws: 0
Brondby wins: 2
Goals / game: 4.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Odense v Brondby2–12026-10-18
Odense v Brondby1–42025-10-27
Brondby v Odense5–12025-09-28

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5