Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5DLWLL12th0–1Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5DWLWD8th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Nyiregyhaza
Budapest Honved
18
Shots
7
5
Shots on target
3
6
Corners
2
15
Fouls
22
4
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
427
Passes
301
63%
Possession %
37%
1.16
xG
0.90
40%
23%
36%
1 · NyiregyhazaXBudapest Honved · 2
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
45%
Both score
68%
Model pick
Nyiregyhaza 40%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.66
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Nyiregyhaza
40.5%
2.47
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-6.7
Match result
Draw
23.4%
4.27
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
-4.3
Match result
Budapest Honved
36.1%
2.77
3.50 William Hill
28.6%
+7.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.2%
1.16
1.23 Betano
81.3%
+4.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.8%
7.23
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
-9.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.7%
1.50
1.70 Betano
58.8%
+7.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.3%
3.00
2.15 Bet365
46.5%
-13.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.9%
2.23
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
+7.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.1%
1.81
1.45 Betano
69.0%
-13.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.7%
1.48
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+6.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.3%
3.10
2.25 William Hill
44.4%
-12.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Nyiregyhaza v Budapest Honved: too close to call
Our model makes Nyiregyhaza 40% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 23% and Budapest Honved at 36%. The goal projection is 1.77 for Nyiregyhaza against 1.66 for Budapest Honved — a slight edge to Nyiregyhaza on expected output. A combined 3.43 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 8%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 5%
This season
Season records for Nyiregyhaza and Budapest Honved
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nyiregyhaza
Metric
Budapest Honved
2.60 (better)
Goals scored
2.40
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
5.33
Shots on target
6.00 (better)
18.33 (better)
Total shots
16.67
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.33
Corners
5.33
48.3
Possession %
49.7 (better)
364
Passes
421 (better)
—
Tackles
—
18.33
Fouls
14.67 (better)
1.33
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
4.00
Yellow cards
3.00 (better)
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Nyiregyhaza v 
Budapest Honved